USD IDR today is still stagnant around the 15,000 level as Indonesia's worrying trade situation is filled with various sentiments on Monday morning. However, Indonesia's exports fell by 21.18% in June, compared to a previous decline of 0.96% and analysts' estimates of -18.65%. Further data showed that imports fell to -18.35% from 14.35%, compared to estimates of -7.75%, while the trade balance showed a wider surplus of $3.46 billion compared to market estimates of $1.35 billion and the previous surplus of $0.44 billion. Please note that the dismal economic growth of China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2023 added to geopolitical concerns related to Typhoon Talim in Hong Kong, as well as the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) concerns about inflation, which negatively affected market sentiment and weighed on the USD/IDR exchange rate.

Similar sentiments were also voiced by New Zealand (NZ) Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, reflecting geopolitical concerns over China and consequently affecting market sentiment, which in turn supported demand for USD/IDR. On the other hand, the stabilization of the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, after recording its biggest weekly decline since November 2022, also posed challenges to the USD/IDR decline although the latest quote failed to extend the recovery from the previous day. It is worth noting that preliminary data on the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index on Friday and consumer inflation expectations rekindled concerns that the Fed is on the verge of taking a policy stance and letting the US Dollar recover, thus attracting buyers for USD/IDR.

Looking ahead, there are important risk catalysts to watch in the short term, although the economic calendar looks light. From a technical analysis perspective, USD IDR recovery today remains elusive unless there is a daily close beyond the support-turned-resistance level that has held for 10 weeks, which is around 15,030 at the time of writing.

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This analysis is based on fundamental and technical views from trusted sources, not advice or invitation. Always remember that this content is intended to enrich the reader's information. Always use independent research first regarding other forex information to be used as a reference in your trading.

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