Today’s NFP data has seen gold prices move cautiously lower over the past 24 hours, as it continues to try to make sense of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. There, Chairman Jerome Powell inspired markets to add about 25 basis points of interest rate hikes to the projected path for tightening by mid-2023. This could help to push up Treasury yields and the US Dollar. The top risk going into Friday is the October NFP with its admission of economic troubles and financial imbalances exposing raw trading nerves.
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Today's Monthly NFP Data


Bagan Dibuat oleh John Kicklighter dengan Data dari BLS 

Chart Created by John Kicklighter with Data from BLS[/caption] Looking beyond the US employment data, Canada will release its own employment data at the same time as the NFP today. Then there’s the Canadian Ivey manufacturing report. Moving further into the forecast for next week, the docket will likely continue to value events that are connected to systemic themes – such as the US CPI release. XAU/USD can be particularly sensitive to situations when bond yields and the greenback move in the same direction, whether up or down. That’s because the yellow metal doesn’t provide an inherent yield for investors holding the asset. When the rate of return on cash rises, as it has this year, it tends to be a bad sign for gold. With that in mind, all eyes now turn to today’s NFP news report. The country is seen adding around 200K positions, down from 263K in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 3.6% from 3.5%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are set to soften slightly to 4.7% y/y from 5.0% previously. The Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the US has been trending up since the summer. This means that overall, economists have been underestimating the health and strength of the economy. That could open the door to a brighter outcome for today’s NFP. If so, bond yields and the US dollar could rise, putting the yellow metal at risk.

Gold Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold is consolidating just above the September low at 1614. The price is also below the long-term descending trendline from March. A break lower opens the door to a test of the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 1562. Otherwise, a break above the trendline exposes the 100-day Simple Moving Average. The latter may act as resistance.

 

XAU/USD Daily Chart


Grafik Harian XAU/USD 

Gold Sentiment Analysis - Bearish

IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) shows that around 86% of retail traders are net-long gold. IGCS tends to act as a contrarian indicator. Since most traders are biased to the upside, it suggests that prices may continue to fall. This is because upside exposure increased by 10.37% and 7.45% from yesterday and last week respectively. With that in mind, the combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

Analisis Sentimen Emas - Bearish
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Gold, XAU/USD, US Dollar, NFP, Today's Technical Analysis - Explained:

  • Gold prices await Friday's US non-farm payrolls report
  • A brighter outcome could boost the US Dollar, sinking XAU/USD
  • Retail traders increase gold bets, hinting at more pain
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