Europe's Competition Against US Dollar Volatility Caught Between Risk & Hawkish Fed

Impact of European Resistance on US Dollar

Euro vs US Dollar - Europe has since yesterday retraced some losses after sedimentation by the broader market after the Chinese authorities cracked down on protests.



Euro/USD has been at a five-month high and was just below the 1.05 level on Monday before the rout began. So far on Tuesday, the Euro has made a move by pushing the US Dollar lower across the board.

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The impact is that the US dollar is now weaker even though several speakers such as the Federal Reserve and financial experts have reminded markets that tighter monetary policy is on the horizon. Fed members James Bullard, John Williams and Lael Brainard have led the hawkish rhetoric in North America before Thomas Barkin takes over the baton after the close in New York, United States.

The overall message is consistent, even as the rate hikes slow. Rates are coming higher and likely to last longer than the market currently expects. Wall Street watched the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finish the session down around 1.5%. Futures are pointing to steady gains when they reopen later today. China and Hong Kong indices surged higher after authorities cracked down on protesters defying ongoing lockdowns there.

Treasury yields have managed to gain a few points from the entire curve that was lost on Monday, the yield curve is 2-10 US and down about -0.80% overnight. Meanwhile in other countries such as Japan, the unemployment rate is slightly worse and is expected to be at 2.6% in October compared to the US forecast of around 2.5%. USD/JPY has strengthened above 138.50 after falling 2 months ago to 137.50. Crude oil is also gaining stronger ahead of OPEC+ on Wednesday. There is some suggestion that they could cut production by more than 2 million barrels / day and this information has been announced.

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Euro vs US Dollar

USD/EUR in the last five months could not maintain their highs and since then fell back to 1.0223 - 1.0482 recently. Support could be at the recent lows around 1.0223 ahead of the break point around 1.0198. While on the upside, resistance has the possibility of the same peaks of 1.0482 and 1.0497 or higher in June at 1.0615 slightly below the break point at 1.0638.

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