EURUSD remains under pressure today at 1.055, although no action has been taken as the market awaits US inflation data on Tuesday morning. The latest lag in the currency pair is associated with mixed signals regarding the US consumer price index (CPI) for November. However, economic fears around the Euro area have made bears hopeful. Concerns about Europe's ability to survive the winter amid the Russian energy crisis seem to be challenging Euro buyers. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a press conference that energy supplies in Europe are safe during this winter.

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Von der Leyen also said that Europe could still face a gap of up to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas next year. Leyen also called on EU members to quickly adopt the energy proposal. The same thing, raising geopolitical fears because Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to supply oil to several countries that support the oil price cap also supported by the EU.

On the other hand, the New York Fed’s one-year inflation precursor cut contrasts with the upbeat 5-10-year inflation expectations as per the St. Louis Fed (FRED) data report. It said that the latest prints of 5-10-year inflation expectations showed a rebound with respective readings of 2.28% and 2.35%. On the same note, there was also a downbeat note on the US PPI last week which also hinted at weaker US inflation by the UoM survey, and the US ISM services PMI and UoM survey inflation also suggested a stronger US CPI print.

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On the broader front, the recent hawkish bias over Fed officials’ cautious tone versus ECB. Recession woes seem to weigh on EUR/USD prices today. Mixed risk catalysts optimistic over China’s covid moves met with softer market moves and this challenged the pair’s momentum ahead of the key data. Amidst these plays, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields registered their first daily decline in four years around 3.58% and 4.36 respectively. In the meantime, the S&P 500 posted mild losses near 4,020 despite a firmer close against Wall Street on Monday.

It should be noted that oil prices are improving and the DXY is weakening, but traders remain cautious overall. Looking ahead, the ZEW sentiment index for Germany in December and the November print of the HICP index are expected to move directly ahead of the US CPI data. Market expectations for the November CPI indicate a lower result, at 7.3% YoY. This percentage is lower than the previous figure of 7.7%, while the monthly CPI is down 0.3%, lower than the previous reading of 0.4%.
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It is worth noting that CPI ex Food & Energy seems to be the key and is also expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM, which could please DXY buyers while weighing on EUR/USD prices if there is a stronger rise in prices.

EUR USD Technical Analysis

The repeated failure to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the decline of this pair between the end of March and September around 1.05555, aligns with a bearish divergence by the RSI, which gives sellers hope. The bearish RSI divergence can be observed when the price makes higher highs, but the oscillator makes lower highs, indicating a lack of buying momentum and the potential for a bearish reversal.

Above is daily information about EUR USD today. Continue to update the latest information through the GIC journal which will be announced every day. You can also trade on the GICTrade Forex trading application with its latest feature, an ECN account, enjoy the advantages of the latest features with the lowest spread starting from 0 Rupiah!