Dollar Ends Decline, Yen Nears Low

Oleh Wachda Mihmii
Last updated at
07 Jan 2025 15:22
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The dollar ended its decline, heading for its first weekly decline, versus major peers since early last month on Friday as global risk appetite rebounded. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen hit a three-year low and bitcoin prices hit nearly $60,000. The dollar index slipped 0.1% to 93.9 and fell 0.2% for the week, setting its first weekly loss in six. The greenback tends to rise when investors seek safety. Global stock markets have rallied this week as concerns about economic stagflation eased as better-than-expected corporate earnings in the United States. For many, the yen is the only currency seen as a safe haven. The dollar has maintained its momentum for the past five weeks, gaining 0.4% on Friday to hit 114.18 yen for the first time since November 2018. Analysts say long-dollar investors have been squeezed out of their positions in recent days. Moreover, inflation data does not support further gains in the currency. "The lack of upside surprises in the US CPI (consumer price inflation) data and confirmation of existing expectations for a Fed tapering at its meeting did not provide a catalyst for additional USD buying and hence the sell-off," said MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny. The greenback has rallied since early September on expectations that the US central bank will tighten monetary policy sooner than previously expected amid an improving economy and soaring energy prices. The September Fed meeting confirmed for the week that a tapering of stimulus is certain to begin this year. Although policymakers are sharply divided over inflation and what they should do about it. Currency markets are currently pricing in about a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in July. After that, the big picture of the health of the US economy is the release of retail sales figures on Friday. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1611 after touching $1.1624 for the first time since September 4 on Thursday. Sterling rose 0.4% to $1.3722 after climbing to its highest since Sept. 24 at $1.3734 overnight. The risk-sensitive Aussie dollar rose 0.2% to $0.7428. New Zealand's kiwi dollar jumped 0.4% to $0.7061, extending a 1% surge on Thursday. "We ended the week on a high risk front," Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne broker Pepperstone, wrote in a note to clients. "Equities have rallied hard, and JPY has no place as a hedge. Therefore, this is only going to drag on the overall portfolio performance," Weston said. In cryptocurrencies, news bitcoin surged to a near six-month peak of $60,000 as traders became increasingly confident that U.S. regulators would approve the launch of an exchange-traded fund based on its futures contracts.

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