WTI, or Western Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude oil, traded around $81.02 on Monday, experiencing moderate gains for three consecutive days.
However, the upward price trend for WTI this week came to a halt, attributed to the possibility of further monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and economic challenges in China. Recent data from Baker Hughes, released on Friday, showed a decline in the number of active rigs in the United States over the last 12 weeks.
Fears of a debt crisis in China and issues in the real estate sector have further heightened risk aversion, pressuring WTI prices lower.
Last week, China’s second-largest real estate company, Evergrande, filed for bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court under Chapter 15. Additionally, the China Housing Price Index for July fell to -0.1%, down from 0% previously.
This report adds to concerns over a potential crisis in China's property sector. Market investors will be closely monitoring major news regarding China’s economic issues and further signs of economic decline, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices.
Moreover, the FOMC meeting notes highlighted that inflation remains at elevated levels, and officials are concerned about its significant impact.
Federal Reserve policymakers indicated that further interest rate hikes may be necessary to steer inflation towards the desired target, and future rate decisions will heavily depend on incoming economic data.
It's essential to note that interest rate hikes can increase borrowing costs, which in turn may slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.
On the flip side, hopes for additional stimulus measures from China could limit the decline in WTI prices. On Sunday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that China intends to devise financial support measures to address debt concerns faced by local governments, as reported by Reuters.
Traders will closely follow developments regarding large fiscal plans in China, while risk sentiment will continue to be a primary factor influencing WTI oil prices.
This weekend, data from the Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be in focus.
Both events have the potential to significantly impact WTI oil prices measured in U.S. dollars. Oil traders will be looking for clues from this data and identifying trading opportunities that may arise around WTI oil prices.
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