Weekly Market Analysis: November 30 - December 04, 2020

weekly market analysis November 30 - December 4, 2020 will discuss things that can affect the market such as, the US Dollar Index weakened to its lowest level in almost 3 months at the end of trading last week. The reason is because of the growing belief that stimulus will soon be launched in large amounts from central banks in several countries in the world, in order to deal with the impact caused by Covid-19. The good thing is that China's Manufacturing PMI data in the last few months shows that the Chinese economy is starting to stir. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity that shows expansion is a reflection of increasing factory output in line with the recovery of domestic and foreign market demand. Gold fell around 2% and broke through the psychological level of $ 1800 / troy ounces, the impact of increasing optimism for economic recovery due to the increasingly positive development of the Covid-19 vaccine and the smooth transition of presidential leadership in the United States on January 20, 2021. Oil is moving actively, especially the plans of OPEC members and non-members including Russia, which are likely to postpone plans to increase oil production next year. OPEC plans to increase its production by 2 million barrels per day starting in January 2021 or around 2% of global consumption.

1. Important/High Impact Data on Weekly Market Analysis

1.1 OPEC Meetings

Sunday - Monday All day, the meeting of members and non-members will be decided today, the results of the OPEC meeting will decide on the policy of limiting production, on the other hand, US rig production activities and Libyan oil production continue to increase. If OPEC members and non-members reach an agreement not to increase production in the range of 2 million barrels per day in January 2021 as written in the previous agreement, then oil prices have the opportunity to move up, and vice versa.

1.2 Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement (AUD)

Tuesday, 10:30 WIB. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting later, plans to maintain interest rates at 0.10%. If the RBA is as predicted above, the Aussie will move to strengthen against the US Dollar if the currency of the superpower country continues to weaken.

1.3 Fed Chair Powell Testifies & ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday, 22:00 WIB. The Fed Chairman "Jerome Powell" will give his views on the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) policy before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in Washington DC. What does the CARES Act mean? The CARES Act is a direct aid package (BLT) of around more than USD2 trillion that will be disbursed by the US government for workers, families, and small businesses. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is the same index released by the Market for the Manufacturing PMI, but the data is sourced and created by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which is specifically created for the US. This indicator usually has a greater impact than the one released by the Market. Just info This index is based on a survey of around 400 purchasing managers in the US, regarding current business conditions and situations, including production output, product availability, shipping activity, number of orders, and number of workers or employees. If the release is above 50.0, it reflects expansion in the manufacturing sector, but if it is below 50.0, it indicates contraction.

1.4 RBA Gov Lowe Speak (AUD)

Wednesday, 07:00 WIB. RBA has been operating since January 14, 1960. Almost the same as other central banks, the RBA's mission is to stabilize the value of the Australian currency against other currencies. play a role in creating jobs, increasing economic growth and welfare for the Australian people.

1.5 GDP (AUD)

Wednesday, 07:30 WIB. Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) or also called Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) is one of the important benchmarks for measuring the level of a country's economy. Usually this data is taken from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency, in a certain period. In the previous quarter it was released at -7.00% in this quarter it is predicted to increase to 2.4%. If the data release later matches or even exceeds the prediction, it will strengthen the Australian currency, and vice versa.

1.6 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)

Friday, 20:30 WIB. This data illustrates the level of employment that can accommodate new workers and the unemployment rate in Canada. The unemployment rate in Canada last November was 8.9%, if later released less than 8.9% then unemployment in Canada will decrease, and the Canadian Dollar currency will strengthen, and vice versa. While the addition of new jobs last November was 83.6K. If later released above that number, it will strengthen the Canadian currency.

1.7 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)

Friday 20:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month the Earnings will be good which is followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though the Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 6.9% and is predicted to drop to 6.8% in December. If it is released as predicted or even below, the US Dollar will strengthen.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil