Weekly Market Analysis: May 10 - May 14, 2021

This weekly market analysis for May 10-14, 2021 discusses several things that can affect the market, such as the release of NFP data last week, which has changed speculation that post-pandemic economic recovery activities will be able to cause a faster increase in inflation, so that it can be anticipated by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index is currently at 90.178, previously at 90.128 and is the first time since last February. The Greenback is predicted to continue to weaken against other major currencies in trading on Monday early this week. This is due to market players who consider that monetary policy due to the US employment report that was released was not good, but the focus of market players will be the release of inflation data this week. The United States only released around 226,000, far below predictions and the previous period and the unemployment rate also surprisingly increased. EURUSD strengthened against the US Dollar due to the release of American economic data regarding the availability of new jobs and the increasing monthly unemployment rate. The strengthening of the Euro is still predicted to continue amidst the weakening of the US Dollar and the selling of the Dollar by market players. GBPUSD is strengthening for the Pound Sterling compared to the US Dollar. The weakening of the US Dollar is predicted to continue. The Pound Sterling is increasingly showing its strength amidst the increasing vaccination activities and other developments to drive the economy. England is one of those predicted to soon emerge and recover from the Covid-19 pandemic that has hit the world. Oil prices managed to rise at the end of trading last week. This increase in Oil was supported by industry data predicting that the amount of US Crude Oil stocks would fall below expected levels. This data provides an illustration that American demand will increase in the future. The rebound in Oil prices will occur soon this year, because countries with very large economies such as China and the United States are slowly but surely recovering from the crisis that hit due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, the demand for Fuel Oil is increasing due to the use of jet fuel which is predicted to jump by around 30%, this is because US citizens are starting to travel during the peak summer season to come. Gold prices jumped to their highest level in trading last Friday. The rate of increase in Gold was boosted again when the US employment data was released negative. The highest level achieved this time was higher since November last year, in addition to the negative employment data, the release of monthly unemployment data also increased. That is what boosted the price of Gold. Today's Asian market trading session, Gold is expected to continue to increase. Many economists believe that the current increase in Gold prices will not last long. This is explained that the previous data was released together with the new normalized US economy, therefore the data for the following month is very likely to show the opposite. However, regarding the prediction of the Fed's interest rate hike, it has begun to subside.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis

1.1 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they often provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.2 CPI & Core CPI (USD)

Wednesday, 19:30 WIB. CPI This data measures changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data used to calculate a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements. Core CPI is the core data from consumer price data which is the majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency assessment because rising prices cause central banks to raise interest rates to honor their mandate to control inflation. Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of the CPI, but tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to Core data - and so do investors.

1.3 BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks (CAD)

Thursday, 10 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they often provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.4 Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales (USD)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. The definition of Core Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars. Although car sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. Therefore, core data is considered a better measure of spending trends. While Retail Sales data is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall baseline data for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which account for a large portion of a country's overall economic activity.

2. Weekly Market Analysis Technical Review

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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