Weekly Market Analysis: March 29 - April 02, 2021

Weekly market analysis March 29 - April 02 will discuss things that affect market movements such as, the Greenback currency is still strengthening compared to other major currencies, this is because of support from the increase in the yield of long-term US government bonds and also the increasingly positive US economic data released increasingly makes confidence that the US economy can recover and faster than predicted. This week will also be released important economic data that is a benchmark for the progress of the US economy. Important economic data include the average hourly wages of workers, Non Farm Payroll data and monthly unemployment rate data in the US. EURUSD moved up due to the weakening of the US Dollar that occurred in trading last Friday. On Monday early this week, it is predicted that EURUSD will move up. However, the upward movement will not last long because it is hampered by the continued implementation of the lockdown in Germany and the emergence of concerns about the 3rd phase of the Covid-19 pandemic in the European zone. The Pound Sterling versus the US Dollar last week ended up closing higher. The strengthening of the Poundsterling was supported by the physical sale of US Dollars by market players and also by positive signals shown by the British public regarding the distribution and implementation of the Corona vaccine in the UK. Predictions that the distribution and delivery of crude oil globally will be hampered have caused oil prices to rise. This happened because of the disruption in the Suez Canal, which was blocked by a container ship. There is information that it will take weeks to be able to move the giant container ship that has disrupted the Suez Canal route. Gold movements during last week tended to be in a limited range of US $ 1730.00 - US $ 1745.00 / troy ounce. However, if the increase in US bond yields rises again, coupled with the view of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who said that with the help of stimulus that has been approved by Congress and the distribution of these funds quickly and appropriately, the American economy will be able to recover faster than previously predicted, thus causing the price of Gold to decline. If technically the movement of Gold can penetrate the 1740 level, then there is a big chance that it will continue to increase and could penetrate the resistance level in the 1745s. The weakening of the US Dollar momentarily coupled with information regarding the increasing number of Covid-19 pandemic sufferers in Europe, caused the movement of Gold to soar in trading on Friday, March 26, 2021 last weekend. The movement of Gold in today's trading is predicted to still try to rise. This is due to the decline in the yield of US government bonds for long-term tenors. In addition, the US weekly unemployment claims data released was lower than predicted last Sunday, causing a signal that the US economic recovery will be faster. In addition, the rapid movement of the US government in launching the Covid-19 vaccine also contributed to the price of Gold.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis March 29 - April 02, 2021

1.1 OPEC - JMMC Meetings (All Pair)

Thursday, All Day. The definition of JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, the most important of which in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak with reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and the meeting's objectives is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for this meeting was originally in January 2017.

1.2 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month Earnings will be good followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 6.2% and is predicted to drop to 6.0% in March. If it is released as predicted or even below, the US Dollar will strengthen.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis March 29 - April 02, 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Minyak

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