Weekly Market Analysis: March 22 - 26, 2021

Weekly market analysis 22-26 March 2021 will discuss things that affect market movements such as, the US Dollar is strengthening against several other major currencies with the continued increase in US bond yields. The strengthening of the US Dollar is also supported by tensions between the US and China which can trigger sentiment for a shift in investment instruments which will ultimately benefit the Greenback's position as a safe haven currency. In addition, US bond yields still support the current bullish Dollar. The outlook for US-China trade relations worsened after high-level diplomatic talks last week in Anchorage, Alaska. Regarding the meeting, it gave the public an idea that President Biden was not fully maintaining a tough stance like previous President Donald Trump towards China. Although the first phase agreement last year had made Washington and Beijing succeed in carrying out a ceasefire during the trade war between the two. Envoys from both sides are still discussing and discussing trade competition and economic levels to this day. EURUSD moved down in the market last week, the weakening of the Euro was the impact of the strengthening of the US Dollar which was supported by the high yield of US government bonds. In addition, after the release of negative German PPI data, the Eurozone currency weakened against the US dollar. The Euro's weakening is expected to continue in the market on Monday early this week, if the strength of the US dollar continues and the new lockdown policy in France is still in effect. The Pound Sterling versus the US Dollar generally weakened against the British currency in the market last week. The weakening of the Pound Sterling was due to the strength of the US Dollar which was helped by the increase in the yield on 10-year bonds. The increase in bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar occurred after the consequences of the attitudes of market players after the Fed's policy regarding banking capital. For the movement on Monday early this week, the Pound Sterling is predicted to continue to weaken. Regarding information that British PM Boris Johnson plans to extend the lockdown until October. The movement of Oil in trading last Friday overall rose, this increase was triggered by reports that there had been a recovery in fuel demand. This positive sentiment arose after several other European countries such as Germany and France were reported to have returned to using the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after receiving approval from relevant officials. In today's market, EURUSD is expected to weaken again. There is additional US Rig activity in the Buker Hughes report. The movement of Gold at the end of trading last Friday generally increased. This increase in Gold was due to a momentary shift in investment instruments carried out by market players, although at that time the strengthening of the US Dollar was still occurring and the yield on bonds for 10-year tenors continued to increase. In the market movement at the beginning of this week in the Asian session, it is estimated that it will decline if the strengthening of the US Dollar and the increase in the yield on US government bonds continue. The sheen of Gold for Monday at the beginning of this week is assumed to move down, this decline is the impact of market players' interest in riskier investments. Although the problem of the Covid-19 pandemic is still a problem for countries in the world. However, there are things that can make the price of Gold move up, including the extension of the lockdown in Germany until next April. The problem of concerns about the Covid-19 vaccine made by Astrazeneca in the European Union and the UK is increasingly making the movement of Gold gain momentum to rebound. The US-China tensions are back in full swing, coupled with Tehran-Washington joining the Saudi-Iran dispute could be a good diversion for Gold. On the other hand, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan surprisingly dismissed the head of the Turkish Central Bank on Saturday.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 22 - 26 March 2021

1.1 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

Monday, 20:00 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.2 Fed Chair Powell Testifies (USD)

Tuesday, 21:00 WIB. As the head of the central bank Jerome Powell, who controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the US currency. Market players are watching the policy that will be taken, because it is often used to provide global clues about future monetary policy. The central bank chairman's accountability speech usually comes in 2 parts: first he will read a prepared statement (text version), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Because the questions are not known in advance, the moment can cause very volatile movements in the market.

1.3 French Flash Services PMI & French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Wednesday, 15:15 WIB. This data measures the diffusion index level based on surveyed purchasing managers in the service sector. This data is also a leading indicator of a country's economic health. If businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers' levels will provide a current and relevant view of a company's economic outlook. This data is the result of a survey of about 750 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. If the data is released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which was first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the biggest impact.

1.4 German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Wednesday, 15:30 WIB. German Flash Manufacturing PMI is data from a survey of about 800 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact. German Flash Services PMI is a survey of about 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which sources first reported in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

1.5 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF)

Thursday, 15:30 WIB. This is the main tool used by the SNB Governing Council to inform market participants about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

1.6 BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (CAD)

Thursday, 16:30 WIB. Tiff Macklem as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.7 BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Thursday, 16:30 WIB. Andrew Bailey as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.8 Euro Summit (EUR)

Friday, Allday. The meeting of heads of state of the European Union member countries will discuss how to strengthen the role of the Euro currency in the international arena, this meeting will be held in Brussels.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 22 - 26 March 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BEARISH
Movement Range	64,20 (High)
Movement Range	57,26 (Low)

Visit GIC Indonesia to get information about the world of trading. You can also join us in the GIC Trade Telegram Community and GIC Trade Telegram Channel. Don't forget to check the GIC Indonesia Youtube account which is full of lots of information, and follow our Instagram account to get information about various interesting webinars that you can follow.