Weekly Market Analysis: March 15 - 19, 2021

Weekly market analysis 15 - 19 March 2021 will discuss things that affect the market such as, the Greenback currency had weakened against several other major currencies in today's Asian session. The bias of the US Dollar movement because it has been officially and legally approved and signed by the American government committee. The focus of market players this week includes the FOMC meeting which is planned to be held on Thursday, March 18, 2021 in the early hours of the morning starting at 01:00 WIB. The Chairman of the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) "Phillip Lowe" in his remarks this morning at the Melbourne Business School online conference, reiterated that the central bank will maintain monetary stimulus to maintain the recovery of the Australian economy. He said this because until now the Australian economy has not been stable, especially the investment sector economy from other countries. For the movement of Gold on Friday last week, it moved up to the level of 1727 / troy ounce. Before closing up, the movement of Gold had decreased and touched the psychological level at 1700, but finally rebounded. The rebound in Gold was supported by physical purchases by market players. The actions of these market players ignored the strengthening of the US Dollar and the increase in US bond yields. The strengthening of the US Dollar was driven by the release of positive economic data, namely the PPI and Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment US. However, the movement of Gold on Monday, March 15, 2021 at the beginning of this week, Gold is expected to continue its decline. This is due to the strengthening of the US Dollar and the momentary profit taking action carried out by market players. However, the movement of Gold rose in the Asian session today, because it was supported by the decline in market demand for the US Dollar, after the official ratification of the US Covid-19 fiscal stimulus package and to encourage economic recovery of US $ 1.9 trillion last week. Oil prices moved steadily and were at their highest price level in the opening and trading of the market on Monday at the beginning of this week. The latest information reports that Saudi Arabia has cut global Oil shipments in April by 15%. Saudi Arabia's action was taken after the OPEC+ member meeting agreed to continue the production restrictions that had previously been implemented until April. The increase in oil prices in today's Asian trading session was also supported by positive fundamental data from China. For the Euro versus the US Dollar, the Euro is expected to continue to weaken. The weakening of the Euro is due to the strengthening of the US Dollar. This weakening ignores the good release of economic data. The Euro economic data released includes data on Eurozone industrial production released higher than predicted. The Pound Sterling admitted defeat to the US Dollar in trading on Friday at the end of last week. The weakening of the Pound Sterling was due to the strength of the US Dollar, in addition to the release of less than encouraging UK economic data. The UK data released was UK industrial and manufacturing production data. In today's market trading, the Pound Sterling versus the US Dollar is expected to continue to weaken.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 15 - 19 March 2021

1.1 RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks (AUD)

Monday, 6:15 a.m. WIB. As head of Australia’s central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they often provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.2 Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales (USD)

Tuesday, 19:30 WIB. The definition of Core Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars. Although car sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. Therefore, core data is considered a better measure of spending trends. While Retail Sales data is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall baseline for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which account for a large portion of a country's overall economic activity.

1.3 CPI (CAD)

Thursday, 19:30 WIB. This data calculates changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data for calculating a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements.

1.4 FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement & Federal Fund Rate (USD)

Thursday, 01:00 WIB. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) FOMC Economic Projection is the main tool used by the Fed to provide information on the Central Bank's economic and monetary projections/predictions/expectations to market participants. This report includes the FOMC's projections for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and more importantly, details of each FOMC member's interest rate forecasts. The FOMC Statement (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by the Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they usually vote on setting interest rates. The Federal Fund Rate is the decision of a country's central bank to maintain, raise or lower interest rates. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in determining the value of a country's currency. Market participants will definitely pay close attention to the release of this data. After this data is released, it will usually be followed by a statement and information to the mass media which will also be followed by a question and answer session, where this question and answer session will move the market volatile.

1.5 FOMC Press Conference (USD)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.6 GDP (NZD)

Thursday, 04:45 WIB. This data is data that measures the level of income and purchasing power of a country, and data that records the annual rate of change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country.

1.7 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thursday, 07:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is the most important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.8 MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary & Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Thursday, 19:00 WIB. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes is the BOE MPC meeting results containing the interest rate votes for each MPC member during the last meeting. The vote details provide insight into which members changed their stance on interest rates and how close the committee is to enacting future rate changes. This Monetary Policy Summary data is one of the main tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their votes on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary on the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about future vote outcomes. Official Bank Rate is Interest rate decisions are usually priced in the market, so they tend to be overshadowed by the forward-focused Monetary Policy Summary. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in currency valuations - traders look to most other indicators only to predict how interest rates will change in the future. MPC members vote on where to set rates. Individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 15 - 19 March 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BEARISH
Movement Range	68,38 (High)
Movement Range	62,70 (Low)

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