Weekly Market Analysis: June 28 - July 02, 2021 - US Economic Optimism

Weekly Market Analysis June 28 - July 02, 2021 will currently examine several factors that influence market movements over the next week. The greenback is strengthening compared to several other major currencies. The strengthening of the US Dollar is due to the optimistic attitude of market players regarding the condition of the US economy. The confidence of market players is also supported by optimism regarding the US employment data to be released this week. Employment data and hourly wages plus the monthly unemployment rate will be the main focus of market players this week. Currently, the growing belief in the market is that market players are optimistic about the progress of the US economy and employment levels that will be released. The focus of market players this week is the release of NFP data, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings which will be released on Friday starting at 19:30 WIB. EURUSD in the market movement on Friday last weekend managed to strengthen the Euro currency. The strengthening of the Euro compared to the US Dollar currency occurred after the weakening of the US Dollar currency. In addition, the strengthening of the Euro currency was also supported by the optimistic attitude of market players regarding the German Gfk Consumer Climate data, although the strengthening of the Euro currency was overshadowed by concerns about the increase in the Covid-19 outbreak with the Delta variant in Germany. GBPUSD in market trading on Friday last weekend moved weaker for the Pound sterling currency compared to the US Dollar currency. The weakening of the Pound sterling occurred because there were no new policies taken by the Bank of England (BOE) in the previous week. This has faded the results of the release of the UK CBI Realized Sales data. At the same time, the condition of the US Dollar currency was weakening. USDJPY in the market movement on Friday last weekend, the Yen currency strengthened against the US Dollar. The strengthening of the Yen occurred due to the weakening of the US Dollar currency. The weakening of the US Dollar occurred after the release of the Core PCE Price Index and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data. For today's market movement, the Yen is predicted to continue to strengthen, this is because it is supported by the optimistic reading of the BOJ Summary of Opinions this morning. Oil prices moved up in Friday's market trading last weekend. The increase in oil prices occurred due to the weakening of the US Dollar, in addition to the optimistic prospect of a return to normal demand for global fuel oil. For today's market movement, it is predicted that oil prices will try to continue their increase, because the number of requests in several countries in the world seems to be increasing. GOLD in Friday's market trading last weekend, the movement of gold managed to increase. The increase in gold prices was caused by the weakening of the US Dollar. The weakening of the US Dollar was the impact of pessimism regarding the release of US economic data, the data being the Core PCE Price Index and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. In today's market trading in the Asian session, gold movement decreased. The decrease in gold prices was due to the strengthening of the US Dollar. In addition to the strengthening of the US Dollar, the cause of the decrease in gold prices was due to profit taking by market players. The selling of physical gold also put pressure on the movement of gold.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis 28 June - 02 July 2021

1.1 CB Consumer Confidence (USD)

Tuesday, 21:00 WIB. This data is an index conducted on several levels of composite index levels based on surveyed households. This survey was conducted on approximately 3,000 households who were asked for their opinions to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic situation. If from the survey, households feel that confidence in the financial sector is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which contributes most to overall economic activity.

1.2 Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Wednesday, 8:00 a.m. WIB. Data from a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers in China that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have the most up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of the report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the biggest impact.

1.3 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday, 7:15 p.m. ADP analyzes payroll data from more than 23 million workers to come up with an estimate of jobs growth. The jobs growth is an estimate of the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the agriculture and government industries. The data provides a preliminary look at jobs growth, typically two days ahead of the government-released employment data it is designed to replicate. The source changed the calculation formula for the Feb. 2007, Dec. 2008 and Nov. 2012 series to better align with government data.

1.4 German Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday, 14:55 WIB. Data from a survey of about 400 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It’s a leading indicator of economic health — businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company’s economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of the report that are released about a week apart.

1.5 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Thursday, 16:00 WIB. Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of European currencies. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the speech of the head of the Bank of England, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.6 OPEC - JMMC Meetings (All)

Thursday, All Day. The definition of JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, the most important of which in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak with reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and the meeting's objectives is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for this meeting was originally in January 2017.

1.7 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET. Data from a survey of about 300 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It’s a leading indicator of economic health — businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company’s economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of the report that are released about a week apart.

1.8 ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. The head of the European Central Bank "Christine Lagarde" will present her policy views. As the head of the European Central Bank, which controls short-term interest rates, she has a greater influence on the value of European currencies. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the head of the European Central Bank speaks, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.9 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month Earnings will be good followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 5.8% and is predicted to drop to 5.7% in June. If it is released according to or even below the prediction, the US Dollar will strengthen.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 28 June - 02 July 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BULLISH
Range Pergerakan	75,35 (High)
Range Pergerakan	70,62 (Low)

This is the weekly market analysis for June 28 - July 02, 2021, which discusses the optimism of the US economy towards market movements. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading. Visit GIC Indonesia to get information about the world of trading. You can also join us in the GIC Trade Telegram Community and GIC Trade Telegram Channel. Don't forget to check the GIC Indonesia Youtube account which is full of lots of information, and follow our Instagram account to get information about various interesting webinars that you can follow.