Weekly Market Analysis: June 14 - 18, 2021 Greenback Strengthens & FOMC

This weekly market analysis for June 14-18, 2021 will discuss several causes that influenced market movements this week. The US dollar strengthened against several other major currencies, even though the yield on US government bonds was declining. The US dollar weakened against other major currencies in the market in the American session yesterday, Monday. This is because many market players are holding back or waiting-and-seeing and focusing on waiting for the meeting of several American Central Banks that are members of the Fed meeting (FOMC Meetings) which will be held early Thursday morning. Analysts predict that around 60% of economists polled by Reuters predict that the planned announcement regarding asset tapering will not be discussed at the meeting the day after tomorrow. They also believe that the tapering plan will most likely be discussed at the earliest in the next quarter, although slowly but surely the release of employment data has shown signs of a positive economic level. GBPUSD had strengthened, the strengthening of the Pound against the US Dollar occurred after the physical sale of US Dollars by market players. On the other hand, the Poundsterling should have weakened after the British Prime Minister's statement announced to extend social restrictions or lockdown. USDJPY moved up or the Yen weakened against the US Dollar in Monday's market trading yesterday. The weakening of the Yen occurred due to the selling of the Yen by market players and switching to the US Dollar. The weakening of the Yen against the US Dollar is predicted to continue in today's market trading. However, it is still in a limited range of movement, because the focus of market players will be the FOMC meeting which will be scheduled for Thursday at 01:00 WIB in the morning. AUDUSD where the Australian Dollar had strengthened against the US Dollar. The weakening of the US Dollar in the market movement on Monday night yesterday. For today's market movement, it is estimated that the Australian Dollar will continue to weaken against the US Dollar, this is because the strengthening of the US Dollar continues even though the yield on long-term bonds has decreased. EURUSD, the single currency of the European zone, the Euro, strengthened against the US Dollar. The strengthening of the Euro occurred due to the good impact of the release of European economic data, namely the European Zone Industrial Production Report data, the data was released above predictions, released at 0.8% while the prediction was only 0.4% while the previous period was only 0.4%. The movement of EURUSD today in the Asian session is expected that the Euro will continue to strengthen against the US Dollar. In addition to the good effects of the released European economic data, the strengthening of the Euro also received support from the implementation of the Covid-19 vaccination carried out by countries in the European zone. This has raised an optimistic attitude among market players towards the economy in the European region. The movement of Oil prices is still trying to rise amidst the optimistic attitude that the demand for global crude oil will increase again. This is in line with the ongoing implementation of the Covid-19 vaccination which is being carried out massively and continuously, this will have an impact on the recovery of the global economic level. The price of Gold moved down in Monday's market trading yesterday, amid rumors developing in the market. Currently in the developing market that the tapering of monetary stimulus will be carried out by the Fed at their meeting agenda on Thursday morning. However, the majority of market players are still refraining from making transactions until the release of the results of the FOMC Meetings later.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis 14 - 18 June 2021

1.1 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Tuesday, 19:15 WIB. Bank of England Chairman "Andrew Bailey" will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the British currency. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the head of the Bank of England speaks, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.2 Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales & PPI (USD)

Tuesday, 19:30 WIB. The definition of Core Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars. Even though car sales contribute around 20% of Retail Sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. Therefore, core data is considered a better measure of spending trends. Meanwhile, Retail Sales data is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall initial data for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which contribute most to a country's overall economic activity. PPI (Producer Price Index) is data that measures changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers. This data is a key indicator for measuring the level of consumer inflation, where when producers charge more for the goods and services they produce, the higher costs are usually passed on to consumers. PPI consists of Finished Goods PPI, Wholesale Prices, PPI for Final Demand.

1.3 CPI (CAD)

Wednesday, 19:30 WIB. This data calculates changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data for calculating a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important to assess whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements.

1.4 FOMC Economic Projection, FOMC Statement & Federal Fund Rate (USD)

Thursday, 01:00 WIB. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) The FOMC Economic Projection is the main tool used by the Fed to provide information on projections/predictions/expectations of the Central Bank's economy and monetary to market players. This report includes the FOMC's projections for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and more importantly, details of the interest rate estimates of each FOMC member. The FOMC Statement (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by the Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they will usually vote on setting interest rates. The Federal Fund Rate is a decision by a country's central bank to maintain, raise or lower interest rates. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in determining the value of a country's currency. Market players will definitely pay close attention to the release of this data. After this data is released, it will usually be followed by a statement and information to the mass media which will also be followed by a question and answer session, where this question and answer session will move the market volatilely.

1.5 FOMC Press Conference (USD)

Thursday, 01:30 WIB. This data concerns a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. These questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods used by the Board of Commissioners to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about the monetary policy that will be taken in the future.

1.6 BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks (CAD)

Thursday, 05:30 WIB. Bank of Canada Chairman "Macklem" will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the Canadian currency. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the head of the Canadian central bank speaks, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.7 GDP (NZD)

Thursday, 05:45 WIB. This data is data that measures the level of income and purchasing power of a country, and data that records the annual rate of change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country.

1.8 RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks (AUD)

Thursday, 07:10 WIB. The Chairman of the Australian Central Bank "Lowe" will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the Canadian currency. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often signals future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the head of the Australian central bank speaks, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.9 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thursday, 08:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which is the majority of overall economic activity. This data is important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and strong market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.10 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF)

Thursday, 14:30 GMT. This is the main tool the SNB Governing Board uses to inform market participants about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

1.11 SNB Press Conference (CHF)

Thursday, 15:00 GMT. This is a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create significant market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Governing Board uses to inform investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about the monetary policy stance that will be taken in the future.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 14 - 18 June 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold