Weekly Market Analysis: June 07 - 11, 2021 - NFP Below Expectations

Weekly market analysis 07 - 11 June 2021 currently describes several factors that influence market movements this week. The current condition of the US Dollar is trying to strengthen, even though it had weakened at the end of last week. The Greenback moved weaker against several other major currencies in Friday's market trading, the weakening of the US Dollar occurred after the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data was released below expectations but above last month. The release of this employment data has actually shown that recruitment has started to increase in May because of signs that the effects of the pandemic are starting to subside. With the release of this data, it has eased expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank which will tapering or tighten monetary policy faster. The employment report is lower than predicted even though it is above last month, this is expected to affect the US Central Bank's policy. The unemployment rate released was lower than predicted and last month has been a plus for signs of economic development that is starting to move towards normal. EURUSD had moved stronger for the Euro against the US Dollar. The strengthening of the Euro occurred after the weakening of the US Dollar after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data which was released lower than predicted. The strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar is considered only temporary, because even though it was released below predictions, it is still better compared to the previous period. For today's market movement, EURUSD is expected to weaken for the Euro, after market players digested the statement of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She said that high interest rates would be good for the country. GBPUSD where the Pound Sterling moved stronger compared to the US Dollar. The moment of the weakening of the US Dollar and the good release of British economic data, namely the Construction PMI data which was released was good. However, the strengthening of the Pound Sterling is predicted to be only temporary, because the US Dollar is starting to show its strengthening. Especially after Janet Yellen's statement which could strengthen the US Dollar currency. In addition, there are also signals of concern about Brexit again, after The Times reported the intervention of US President Joe Biden in the dispute between the UK and the European Union regarding the Northern Ireland problem. AUDUSD had moved up in the market trading last Friday, due to the weakening of the US Dollar due to the release of lower than expected NFP data. In addition to the weakening of the US Dollar, the cause of the strengthening of the Aussie was also driven by an increase in the price of Australian copper commodities. However, for today's market movement, the Aussie is expected to weaken, because the US Dollar is starting to strengthen compared to other major currencies. In addition to the strengthening of the US Dollar, there are concerns about the release of negative Australian ANZ Job Advertisement data. Oil prices are increasingly showing their increase, especially with the estimated improvement in global demand for Fuel Oil, especially in the United States. Oil prices are predicted to continue to increase, especially after a report from Baker Hughes regarding sentiment regarding the decline in US Rig activity. GOLD on the market movement last Friday, Gold moved up and reached its highest daily level. This increase in Gold occurred after the release of US NFP data below expectations. This happened because the US Dollar weakened so that Gold rose. In today's market trading in the Asian session, the movement of Gold is predicted to decline, this is the impact of the attitude of market players after the statement from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the G-7 meeting last weekend. She stated that if interest rates were raised it would be good for the US.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis

1.1 RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks (AUD)

Wednesday, 11:00 a.m. ET. As assistant chief of Australia’s central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, she can deputize for the central bank chairman, although the power remains with the central bank chairman because he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch her public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.2 BOC Rate Statement (CAD)

Wednesday, 21:00 WIB. BOC Rate Statement, this data is the main tool used by the central bank's Board of Commissioners to provide investors with information about monetary policy. This data also contains the results of their decisions on interest rates and comments on economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about the results of decisions that are useful for making decisions for future policy.

1.3 Monetary Policy Statement (EUR)

Thursday, 18:45 WIB. This is the data used as one of the main tools the European Central Bank uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about future vote outcomes.

1.4 ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thursday, 6:30 p.m. WIB. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.5 CPI & Core CPI (USD)

Thursday, 19:30 WIB. CPI This data measures changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data used to calculate a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements. Core CPI is the core data from consumer price data which is the majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency assessment because rising prices cause central banks to raise interest rates to honor their mandate to control inflation. Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of the CPI, but tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to Core data - and so do investors.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 07 - 11 June 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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