Weekly Market Analysis: July 05 - 09, 2021 - NFP Release, US Dollar Weakens

This Weekly Market Analysis 05 - 09 July 2021 will discuss several factors that dominate market movements over the next week. After the release of US employment data (NFP) and the US monthly unemployment rate, the US Dollar actually weakened. The Greenback weakened compared to several other major currencies in trading last Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar occurred after the release of US monthly unemployment data which was released increased. The US unemployment rate rose to 5.9%, this data is higher than the prediction of 5.6% and last month's data of 5.8%. When the NFP data was released last week, it showed that the number of job availability prepared by the government had increased. The NFP data was released at 850K, higher than the prediction of only 725K and the previous period's data of 583K. Although the NFP data was good, the US monthly unemployment rate rose, causing market players to conclude that the US Central Bank's plan to raise interest rates faster would disappear. The Corona virus with the new delta variant has begun to hit countries in the world. This has again caused obstacles for countries in Asia, Europe and America to move the economy back to normal. This virus was first discovered in India and spread very quickly. This new variant of the Corona virus is more virulent and more contagious, because the virus does not take long to infect other people. EURUSD moved to strengthen for the Euro currency compared to the US Dollar currency. The strengthening of the Euro was caused by the weakening of the US Dollar currency. After the release of the NFP data, the US Dollar weakened. In addition to the weakening of the US Dollar, the strengthening of the Euro currency also received support from market players' confidence in the release of PPI data for the European region, plus the statement of the chairman of the Euro Central Bank, ECB President "Lagarde" who stated that the Euro zone economy was starting to move towards normal. GBPUSD moved to strengthen for the Pound Sterling currency compared to the US Dollar currency. This strengthening of the Pound Sterling occurred in the market trading on Friday last weekend. The strengthening of the Pound Sterling currency is due to support from the weakening of the US Dollar due to the increase in US monthly unemployment data. For today's market movement, GBPUSD is predicted to move weaker for the Pound Sterling. Concerns about the threat of the spread of the new Delta variant of the Corona virus in the UK and profit taking by market players have weakened the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar. USDJPY moved stronger against the Japanese Yen due to the weakening of the US Dollar. As we know, after the release of the NFP data, the US Dollar weakened due to the increase in the number of US monthly unemployed. The movement of USDJPY today is expected to weaken for the Japanese Yen currency, this is due to concerns about the surge in Corona sufferers for the new Delta variant in Japan. In addition, the US Dollar rebounded due to hawkish statements from several US Central Bank officials. AUDUSD moved to strengthen for the Aussie currency against the US Dollar in trading last Friday. The strengthening of the Australian Dollar was supported by the good prices of Australia's mainstay commodities, namely copper and iron ore. In addition, the weakening of the US Dollar also supported the Aussie currency to strengthen. For today's market movement, AUDUSD is predicted to continue strengthening for the Aussie currency compared to the US Dollar. This is because this morning most of the Australian economic data released was positive. OIL is still moving in a limited range, but in general it is still at its highest level. The increase in oil prices was driven by the weakening of the US Dollar. In addition, there was rejection from several OPEC + member countries for plans to increase their crude oil production. For today's market movement, Oil prices are expected to move down, this is due to a report from Baker Hughes stating that there has been an increase in activity on US rigs. Gold in the market movement on Friday last weekend, had risen and reached its highest daily level. The increase in the price of Gold is the negative effect of the US monthly unemployment rate. Although the release of US NFP data last Friday was good above predictions, because the US unemployment rate rose, the US Dollar weakened and the price of Gold rose. For today's Gold price movement, it is estimated that it will try to decline, due to profit taking by market players. Apart from that, the decline in the price of Gold is also due to the growing confidence of market players in the market regarding the hawkish views of several US Central Bank officials. In addition to the effect of rising US unemployment data, concerns in several countries in the world regarding the new delta variant of the Corona virus have also driven the price of Gold to rise.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis 05 - 09 July 2021

1.1 OPEC - JMMC Meetings (All)

Monday, All Day. The definition of JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, the most important of which in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak with reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and the meeting's objectives is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for this meeting was originally in January 2017.

1.2 RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday, 11:30 WIB. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting later, plans to maintain interest rates at 0.10%. If the RBA is as predicted above, the Aussie will move to strengthen against the US Dollar if the currency of the superpower country continues to weaken. Cash Rate, after the interest rate decision that will be released in the market, tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Interest Rate Statement (Cash Rate), which focuses on future policies. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in impacting the Australian currency. Market players view and prepare for the impacts caused and predict how interest rates will change or not in the future.

1.3 RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks (AUD)

Tuesday, 1 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.4 ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday, 21:00 WIB. ISM Services PMI is the same index released by Market for Services PMI, but the data is sourced and created by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which is specifically created for the US. This indicator will usually have a greater impact than the one released by Market. Just info This index is created based on a survey of around 300 purchasing managers in the US, regarding current business conditions and situations, including production output, product availability, shipping activity, number of orders, and number of workers or employees. If the release is above 50.0 then it reflects expansion in the services sector, but if it is below 50.0 it indicates contraction.

1.5 FOMC Meetings Minutes (USD)

Wednesday, 01:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by The Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they usually vote on setting interest rates.

1.6 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Friday, 5 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.7 ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR)

Friday, 5 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.8 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is an important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 05 - 09 July 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BULLISH
Movement Range	76,35 (High)
Movement Range	71,81 (Low)

This is the weekly market analysis for July 5-9, 2021, which discusses the post-NFP data release that weakened the US Dollar and its effect on market movements. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading. Visit GIC Indonesia to get information about the world of trading. You can also join us in the GIC Trade Telegram Community and GIC Trade Telegram Channel. Don't forget to check the GIC Indonesia Youtube account which is full of information, and follow our Instagram account to get information about various interesting webinars that you can follow.