Weekly Market Analysis: April 26 - 30, 2021

Weekly market analysis 26-30 April 2021 will discuss things that affect the market such as the US Dollar currency moving lower again against several other major currencies in the Asian session, Monday, April 26, 2021. The decline in the yield rate of long-term US government bonds also dragged the US Dollar to its lowest level. The US Dollar currency had strengthened slightly against several other major currencies in the American trading session last Friday. The cause of the strengthening of the US Dollar was the positive impact of the release of economic data such as the PMI index of the American manufacturing and services sectors. In addition, the US housing sector data that was reported was also released above predictions. However, the strengthening of the US Dollar did not last long, because market players were focused on the Fed's monetary policy which will be scheduled for Thursday morning. On the other hand, analysts predict that the chairman of the Fed Central Bank will still give his dovish views. This view is that he will maintain low interest rates for the next few years. The statement also emphasized that the level of the American economy will still face a steep and bumpy road, not a smooth and straight road like a toll road to achieve economic recovery according to the Fed's target. The positive belief that is growing in the market regarding the Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Index data, coupled with the planned reduction in bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) contributed to the strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar in trading last Friday. The Euro's further movement is expected to try to continue strengthening, especially against the US Dollar, if the Fed provides a dovish view regarding the steps to be taken as in its previous remarks in its speech on Thursday morning. The Pound Sterling again showed its strength against the US Dollar in trading at the end of last week. The reason for the strengthening of the Pound Sterling was due to the growing optimism in the market regarding the release of the Manufacturing and Services Index data in the UK. In today's Asian session, the Pound Sterling is expected to continue strengthening because the US Dollar is still under weakening pressure. The expectation of recovery in demand for fuel in America and Europe due to the impact of economic growth plus the easing of lockdowns has resulted in an increase in oil prices in trading on Friday last weekend. For today's trading, oil prices are predicted to continue to increase, due to market players' continued confidence that the global economy will recover. The increase in gold prices in the last few days was hampered and experienced a decline, the decline in gold prices was caused by the rise of the US dollar from its fall. This decline in gold prices occurred in trading on Friday last weekend where there was an increase in interest from market players in risky assets other than gold. The underlying attitude of these market players occurred after several releases of global economic data had illustrated the recovery of the world economy. For today's market movement in the Asian session, it is estimated that gold prices will try to rise from their fall at the end of last week. The growing market forecast that the Fed will still take a dovish policy has caused gold prices to rise again from their fall.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 26-30 April 2021

1.1 BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Monetary Policy Statement & BOJ Press Conference (JPY)

Tuesday, Tentative. The BOJ Outlook Report is a piece of data that will provide valuable insight into the central bank’s view of the economy and inflation, as well as important factors that will shape its future monetary policy decisions. The BOJ Monetary Policy Statement is a piece of data that is one of the main tools the BOJ uses to communicate to investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about future voting outcomes. The BOJ Press Conference is a session where the chairman of the Bank of Japan will give his explanation in front of the public through the media. Market movements will be volatile during the Q&A session where he will explain spontaneously about the economy or anything related to the Japanese currency and interest rates.

1.2 BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks (CAD)

Wednesday, 03:00 WIB. Bank of Canada Chairman "Tiff Macklem" will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the Canadian currency. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the speech of the head of the Canadian central bank, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.

1.3 CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI (AUD)

Wednesday, 08:30 WIB. This CPI data calculates changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average price of various goods and services is sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data for calculating a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control the inflation rate. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements. For Trimmed Mean CPI is data that calculates the rate of change in the price of goods and services at the consumer level, this price is outside the 30% of the most volatile goods.

1.4 OPEC - JMMC Meetings (All)

Wednesday, Tentative. The definition of JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, most importantly in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak with reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and the meeting's goals is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for such a meeting was originally in January 2017.

1.5 FOMC Statement & Federal Fund Rate (USD)

Thursday, 01:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by The Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they will usually vote on setting interest rates. The Federal Fund Rate is the decision of a country's central bank to maintain, raise or lower interest rates. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in determining the value of a country's currency. Market players will definitely pay attention to the release of this data. After this data is released, it will usually be followed by a statement and inform the mass media which will also be followed by a question and answer session, where this question and answer session will move the market volatile.

1.6 FOMC Press Conference (USD)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.7 Advance GDP (USD)

Thursday, 19:30 WIB. This data is data that measures the level of income and purchasing power of a country, and data that records the annual rate of change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country. The release of GDP (state income and expenditure) data has several levels in its release, namely Advance GDP, Preliminary GDP, and Final GDP. Because Advanced is the earliest to be released, it will be awaited by market players and is able to move the market volatilely.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 26-30 April 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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