Weekly Market Analysis: April 19 - 23, 2021

Weekly market analysis 19 - 23 April 2021 today discusses things that move the market such as, the Greenback weakened against several other major currencies, this weakening was due to the decline in the value of the yield of US government bonds. The weakening of the US Dollar is at its lowest level in 4 weeks. For the yield on US bonds with a tenor of 10 years, it has decreased and touched its lowest level in 1 month at 1.528%. Dropping from its highest level in March at 1.776%. The Dollar Index, which is a benchmark for the strength of the American currency, has fallen by 0.111% to 91.561 and is its lowest level since March 18. Analysts and several market players predict that the weakening of the US Dollar will continue. This is also supported by the statement of one of the officials of the San Francisco Fed "Mary Daly" who said that the US economic level is still far from the term "substantially advanced" which has been planned by the central bank for an inflation rate of 2%. In addition, the number of new job openings is still far from the target that has been set. This fact illustrates that the rebound in the American economy is still far from reality. EURUSD moved up in market trading at the end of last week, the weakening of the US Dollar made the Euro movement strengthen quite significantly. In addition, the strengthening of the Euro also received encouragement from the good release of economic data in the European zone. In addition, the high interest of market players in risky assets so that they sell other types of instruments. Today's market movement is also expected to strengthen, because the US Dollar is still in a weakening condition. The optimistic signal emitted by market players in the UK also supported the strengthening of the Pound against other currencies including the US Dollar. GBPUSD moved up in market trading last week due to the impact of the weak US Dollar, in addition to good news arising from the vaccination process carried out by the British government going according to plan. For today's market movement, the Pound is expected to strengthen. AUDUSD was hampered by its strengthening movement that occurred over the past few days, due to the fall in prices for Iron Ore and Copper commodities. Iron Ore and Copper are the leading commodities of Australia which are traded at the Export level. The weakening of the Aussie also occurred due to profit taking by market players, this action was carried out after several days of trading the Australian Dollar moved stronger and reached its highest level. The movement of Oil prices is still dominated by information regarding the activity of American Rigs which has increased again. This caused the movement of Oil prices to decline in the market trading last Friday. Today's market movement is expected to continue to decline. However, on the other hand, with the weakening of the US Dollar, it could be a factor in the increase in Oil prices. In market trading at the end of last week, Friday, April 16, 2021, Gold managed to move up and reach its highest weekly level. This increase in Gold was supported by the weakening of the US Dollar and the increasing tensions between America and China. In addition, the increase in Gold prices also received encouragement from reports of a spike in the number of Covid-19 sufferers in India. The increase in the number of Covid-19 sufferers occurred due to a religious event called the Kumbh Mela festival which was held on the north side of the city of Haridwar. Where the religious event has caused hundreds of thousands of people to gather along the Ganges River and ignore health protocols. With the increasing number of Covid-19 sufferers in the world, Gold will shine even brighter and make it an investment choice for market players. This was reflected when the Corona case first emerged in the world which started in China, causing the price of Gold to soar sharply. For today's market movement, Monday, April 19, 2021, in the Asian session, it is estimated that the price of Gold will continue to increase.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 19 - 23 April 2021

1.1 CPI (NZD)

Wednesday, 05:45 WIB. CPI This data calculates changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data for calculating a country's inflation rate. This is very late compared to inflation data from other countries. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control the inflation rate. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements.

1.2 BOC Monetary Policy Report & BOC Rate Statement (CAD)

Wednesday, 21:00 WIB. BOC Monetary Policy Report This provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. This data is a key factor that will help the central bank to make monetary policy and influence decisions on interest rates, whether to keep them steady, raise or lower them. BOC Rate Statement, this data is the main tool used by the central bank's Board of Commissioners to provide investors with information about monetary policy. This data also contains the results of their decisions on interest rates and comments on economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about the results of decisions that are useful for making decisions for future policy.

1.3 BOC Press Conference (CAD)

Wednesday, 10:00 p.m. WIB. This data on the press conference has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.4 Monetary Policy Statement (EUR)

Thursday, 18:45 WIB. This is the data used as one of the main tools the European Central Bank uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about future vote outcomes.

1.5 ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. WIB. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.6 French Flash Services PMI & French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday, 14:15 WIB. French Flash Services PMI This data measures the level of the diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the service sector. This data is also a leading indicator of a country's economic health. If businesses react quickly to market conditions, and the level of purchasing managers will provide a current and relevant view of a company's economic outlook. This data is the result of a survey of about 750 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. If the data is released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which was first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI is data from a survey of about 750 purchasing managers in Germany who asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. This is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have the most current and relevant insight into a company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

1.7 German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday, 14:30 WIB. German Flash Manufacturing PMI is data from a survey of about 800 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact. German Flash Services PMI is a Survey of about 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which sources first reported in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 19 - 23 April 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BEARISH
Movement Range	66,47 (High)
Movement Range	58,43 (Low)

This is the weekly market analysis for April 19-23, 2021. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading.
Visit GIC Indonesia to get information about the world of trading. You can also join us in the Telegram Community GIC Trade and Telegram Channel GIC Trade. Don't forget to check the Youtube account GIC Indonesia which is full of lots of information, and follow our Instagram account to get information about various interesting webinars that you can follow.