Weekly Market Analysis: April 12 - 16, 2021

Weekly market analysis 12 - 16 April 2021 will discuss things that have an impact on the market during the week such as, the US Dollar entered the beginning of this week starting to strengthen again, the strengthening of the US Dollar was driven by the increase in the yield of US government bonds. For the yield of bonds with a tenor of 10 years. Market maker US yields have crept higher and given the dollar a boost lately. The 10-year yield was trading up around 1.67% on Monday. Earlier this week, this increase was a rebound from its lowest level last month. Currently the yield level is in the range of 0.4%. For a period of 30 years, the increase is at the highest level far compared to the 10-year tenor. Yield with a 10-year tenor "However, 10 years remains far from the highest level that occurred on March 30. The US Federal Reserve has made efforts to minimize the concerns and fears of market players. Jerome Powell emphasized that the current economic pressure is only short-term, and because the short term, whatever its form, is only temporary. In addition, Jerome Powell also ensured that the US economy is currently at a "turning point" with predictions that growth and job creation will increase in the coming months. On the other hand, there are also concerns that if there is forced growth and acting hastily, new problems will arise and of course it will require a lot of money. The pessimistic attitude shown by market players ahead of the release of the German Trade Balance data, coupled with the strengthening of the US Dollar, further weakened the EURUSD movement on Friday last weekend. For today's market movement, it is estimated that EURUSD will strengthen or rise if it changes to being optimistic about the release of the Trade Balance data. Other reports on the problem of Covid-19 sufferers in various countries in the European region, if it decreases, it is certain that the EURUSD movement will strengthen or increase. The RBA Financial Stability Review has produced a "dovish" policy and the strengthening of the US Dollar, further suppressing the Australian Dollar currency at the close of last weekend. For today's market movement, it is predicted that it will continue to decline, this is due to the strengthening of the US Dollar which is supported by the solid yield of US government bonds. The movement of Oil prices last week was at its lowest level, this was due to an increase in the supply of Crude Oil from world crude oil producers and concerns about the increasing number of sufferers of the Covid-19 pandemic which will certainly have an impact on the amount of demand for Fuel Oil. If data is released regarding increasing production activity on American Rigs, the movement of Oil prices will decrease, and vice versa. Gold prices fell again in trading last Friday, the decline in Gold returned to the 1740s after some time ago touching its highest level in the 1750s / troyounce. The decline in Gold prices was due to the strengthening of the US Dollar. For today's Gold movement, Monday, April 12, 2021, in the Asian session, it is estimated that it will continue to decline. This decline is due to the continued strength of the US Dollar which is supported by several factors, including an increase in bond yields and hopes that the American economy will recover soon. For the movement of Gold at the beginning of this week, it is predicted that it will try to rise, this is because of the support of the "dovish" view of the Chairman of the US Central Bank Jerome Powell. Where in its meeting at the FOMC, the Fed will still maintain buying government bonds with the aim of getting the American economy back on its feet. In addition, the Fed will maintain interest rates at the lowest level until an undetermined time. On the other hand, the Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in the IMF seminar held virtually, said that the recovery of the United States economy has not yet occurred evenly and comprehensively.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 12-16 April 2021

1.1 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

Monday, 06:00 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.2 BOC Business Outlook Survey (CAD)

Monday, 9:30 a.m. WIB. A survey of about 100 businesses that asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions, such as sales growth, investment in machinery, employment, inflation expectations and credit conditions. The results are a leading indicator of economic health. If businesses react quickly to market conditions, their changes in sentiment can be early signals of future economic activity such as spending, hiring and investment. The report is highly respected because of its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities about future economic conditions because the companies surveyed are selected according to the composition of the country's GDP.

1.3 CPI & Core CPI (USD)

Tuesday, 19:30 WIB. CPI This data measures changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average price of various goods and services is sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data used to calculate a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements. Core CPI is the core data from consumer price data which is the majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency assessment because rising prices cause central banks to raise interest rates to honor their mandate to control inflation. Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of the CPI, but tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to Core data - and so do investors.

1.4 RBNZ Rate Statement (NZD)

Wednesday, 9am GMT. This data is one of the main tools the RBNZ uses to inform investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary on the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about the outcome of future decisions.

1.5 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thursday, 08:30 WIB. Employment Change is data on job creation that is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data contains the Change in the number of people employed during the previous month. This is important economic data that is released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. Unemployment Rate is data on the unemployment rate in a month. Although generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.6 Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales (USD)

Thursday, 19:30 WIB. The definition of Core Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars. Although car sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. Therefore, core data is considered a better measure of spending trends. While Retail Sales data is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall baseline data for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which account for a large portion of a country's overall economic activity.

1.7 GDP (CNY)

Friday, 09:00 WIB. This data is data that measures the level of income and purchasing power of a country, and data that records the annual rate of change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the country.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 12-16 April 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil