Weekly market analysis 23 - 27 November 2020 this week will be influenced by the USD weakening against several other major currencies, with optimism over the potential early rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine offset by global economic restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. The FDA (Food and Drug Administration) will give approval in mid-December for the distribution of BNT162b2, a vaccine candidate produced by Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech, chief scientific adviser for "Operation Warp Speed" Moncef Slaoui said. The first person in the U.S. could be inoculated the day after approval The UK could also give regulatory approval to BNT162b2 this week. But on the other hand, millions of Americans are expected to ignore warnings to stay home during the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. Increasing concerns that mass movements could increase the number of cases in the second wave in America in a surprising way. In Germany, it is currently facing a second wave, as the country extends its lockdown until mid-December. In the US congress on stimulus measures has also led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (TheFed) could release a stimulus package. The dispute between TheFed and the US Treasury over the termination of several emergency lending programs during the previous week, also fueled this speculation.

1. Important Data/High Impact Weekly Market Analysis 23 - 27 November 2020

1.1 French Flash Services PMI (EUR) 

Monday, 15:15 WIB. Services PMI is a preliminary estimate of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for a country, reflecting the results of a survey on economic and business conditions in the services sector. This data is released in 2 stages.

  • Flash is the first data published.
  • Final is accurate data that produces preliminary numbers from flash data.

This data is released monthly and for November this prediction is 39.2 and the previous month's data is 46.5 (if this data is released above the prediction and last month, then the Euro currency will strengthen, and vice versa. 1.2 German Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI (EUR) US Monday, 15:30 WIB. This data measures the level of activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A figure of >50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector, if a figure lower <50 indicates contraction. Traders pay close attention to this survey because purchasing managers usually have early access to their company's performance data, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. If the data is released higher than expected then it is positive/optimistic for the EUR, while if the data release is lower than expected then it is negative/pessimistic for the EUR. 1.3 Monetary Policy Report Hearings (GBP) Monday, 22:30 WIB. The meaning of Monetary Policy or monetary policy is a policy taken by the government or monetary authority by using changes in the amount of money in circulation and interest rates in the community. So Monetary Policy is all actions, policies or efforts of the central bank to influence the development of monetary variables (money supply, interest rates, credit interest rates, and exchange rates) to achieve the desired goals or targets. 1.4 RBNZ Gov Orr Speak (NZD) Wednesday, 09:00 WIB. RBNZ is the Central Bank of New Zealand which has existed since 1934 and is headquartered in Wellington. RBNZ makes and takes monetary policy to maintain price stability in the community, and ensures the availability and distribution of currency, namely the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), RBNZ also creates an efficient financial system. Therefore, the central bank carries out: monitoring and supervision of the financial system, conducting market operations if necessary, maintaining the value of foreign exchange reserves, and issuing currency. 1.5 FOMC Meeting Minutes (USA) Thursday, 02:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) FOMC is a meeting of several heads of central banks of states that make decisions on monetary policy. FOMC consists of 12 members. 7 members of the board of governors, 4 members are elected from among 11 Reserve Bank presidents (chairmen of the Central Bank of the United States), and 1 permanent member is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The 4 members serve for 1 year in rotation among the 11 people. The FOMC meets 8 times a year to make policy on interest rates and decide whether the central bank will reduce or increase the money supply in the community. Usually the final decision of the FOMC is determined by voting among its members.

2. Technical Review of Weekly Market Analysis 23-27 November 2020

2.1 EUR/USD 

Preference BEARISH
Movement Range 1,19702 (High)
Movement Range 1,17433 (Low)

 

2.2 USDCHF 

Preference BULLISH
Movement Range 0,92492 (High)
Movement Range 0,90303 (Low)

 

2.3 GBPUSD 

Preference BULLISH
Movement Range 1,35150 (High)
Movement Range 1,30948 (Low)

 

2.4 USDJPY 


Preference BULLISH
Movement Range 105,732 (High)
Movement Range 103,131 (Low)

 

2.5 Gold

Preference BEARISH
Movement Range 1906,00 (High)
Movement Range 1787,00 (Low)


2.6 AUDUSD

Preferensi BEARISH
Range Pergerakan 0,74267 (High)
Range Pergerakan 0,71295 (Low)


2.7 Oil



Preference BULLISH
Movement Range 47,44 (High)
Movement Range 40,14 (Low)

This is the weekly market analysis for November 23-27, 2020. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading.

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