Weekly Market Analysis: 18 - 22 January 2021

Weekly market analysis 18 - 22 January 2021 will discuss for a week things that can affect the market such as, the US Dollar moved within a limited range at the beginning of this week (Monday, January 18, 2021) due to the release of poor US economic data, coupled with the increasing number of Corona virus cases in the world making investors more cautious. As a safe haven asset, the US Dollar's position is very profitable. Support for the US Dollar has increased since the Democrats won the US Senate seat, which also drove a spike in bond yields for 10-year tenors. The US Dollar strengthened against other major currencies, due to the gloomy market conditions. The release of negative US NFP and Retail Sales data triggered a negative sentiment that developed in the market, this situation lasted until the market closed last week. The movement of Gold in trading on Friday last weekend decreased, even after the release of negative US retail sales data. This decline in Gold was due to the strengthening of the US Dollar due to physical demand for the Greenback due to concerns about the spike in global Covid-19 cases. Gold's movement initially tried to rebound from its lowest level after the announcement of a larger plan for a Covid-19 stimulus package worth USD $ 1.9 trillion. Added to this was the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell which gave a signal that interest rates would still be maintained and unchanged in the near future. The Euro weakened against the US Dollar, due to market player concerns triggered by news about the delay in the distribution of the Pfizer-produced corona vaccine in Europe. This has raised concerns that the economy will continue to decline because this pandemic will continue to drag on. The Poundsterling also weakened helplessly against the US Dollar, the weakening of the Poundsterling was due to the development of pessimistic sentiment in the market for the release of UK economic data such as the trade balance and manufacturing production. Added to this, last Saturday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that additional lockdown measures were planned to protect themselves "from the risk of the discovery of a new strain of the Corona virus that has not been identified." The UK will close all travel corridors starting this Monday, adding that anyone visiting the UK must be able to show a negative Corona virus test result. Oil prices moved down after previously soaring sharply. The decline in oil prices is due to market players' concerns about a decline in fuel demand due to the increase in Covid-19 cases and the spread of lockdown policies globally.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 18 - 22 January 2021

1.1 GDP (China)

Monday, 09:00 WIB. China GDP, data This is the broadest measure of a country's economic activity and a key gauge of its health. It also records the inflation-adjusted change in the value of all goods and services produced by a country's economy. It is released quarterly compared to the same quarter in the previous year. China data can have a wide impact on currency markets because of China's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment.

1.2 BOC Monetary Policy Report & BOC Rate statement (CAD)

Wednesday, 22:00 WIB. Monetary Policy Report, is data that provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation and the key factors that will influence in making future monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions. BOC Rate Statement, this data is the main tool used by the central bank's Board of Commissioners to provide investors with information about monetary policy. This data also contains the results of their decisions on interest rates and comments on the economic conditions that influence their decisions. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about the results of decisions that are useful for making decisions for future policy.

1.3 BOC Press Conference (CAD)

Wednesday, Tentative. This is a two-part press conference - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create significant market volatility. This is one of the primary methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It details the factors that influenced the recent interest rate decision, such as the overall outlook for the economy and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.4 Presidential Election Biden speaks (USD)

Wednesday, Tentative. President-elect "Joe Biden" plans to speak for the first time after the inauguration, what he will say will certainly be closely watched by market players and will move the market. Especially regarding policies and the timing of the realization of his promises during the previous campaign.

1.5 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thursday, 07:30 WIB. Employment Change is data on job creation that is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data contains the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. This is important economic data that is released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. Unemployment Rate is data on the unemployment rate in a month. Although generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.6 BoJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement (JPY)

Thursday, Tentative. The Outlook Report is a piece of data that will provide valuable insight into the central bank’s view of economic and inflation conditions, as well as important factors that will shape its decisions and monetary policy in the future. The Monetary Policy Statement is a piece of data that is one of the main tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about the outcome of future votes.

1.7 Monetary Policy Statment (EUR)

Thursday, 19:45 WIB. This is the data used as one of the main tools the European Central Bank uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about future vote outcomes.

1.8 ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thursday, 8:30 p.m. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.9 BoE Gov Bailey speak (GBP)

Thursday, 24:00 WIB. The head of the European Central Bank will give his views and policies. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Market participants watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide clues about future monetary policy.

1.10 French Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday, 15:15 WIB. This data measures the diffusion index level based on surveyed purchasing managers in the service sector. This data is also a leading indicator of a country's economic health. If businesses react quickly to market conditions, and the level of purchasing managers will provide a current and relevant view of a company's economic outlook. This data is the result of a survey of about 750 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. If the data is released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which was first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the biggest impact.

1.11 German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Service PMI (EUR)

Friday, 15:30 WIB. German Flash Manufacturing is data from a survey of about 800 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact. German Flash Services PMI is a survey of about 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which sources first reported in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 18 - 22 January 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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