Weekly Market Analysis: 15 - 19 February 2021

Weekly market analysis 15-19 February 2021 will discuss for a week things that affect the market such as, the condition of the Greenback at the beginning of this week moving closer to its lowest position in 2 weeks. This happened because of market players' concerns about the situation in the US. They are pessimistic whether the recovery from the pandemic in the United States will be as fast as expected. The US Dollar Index has reached its peak of strengthening at the level of 91.6 on February 5, 2021, amid hopes that the rebound of the US currency will be able to exceed the economies of other countries. However, in reality it actually decreased/weakened after the release of disappointing employment data. There are differences regarding the condition of the US Dollar, some market players expect the US currency to "strengthen" because the US economy is starting to outperform the economies of other countries including Europe. On the other hand, some view that the US economic recovery is seen as the main driver that will have a global impact which should lift risky assets but by "weakening" the US Dollar currency. Oil prices soared and there was a "Gap - UP" on Monday, February 15, 2021 early this week in the Asian session. The spike in oil prices occurred due to fighting between the Saudi Arabian-led coalition in Yemen, which said it had succeeded in stopping a drone that turned out to be loaded with explosives, the aircraft had been controlled by the Houthi group which is aligned with Iran. This incident has raised concerns about new tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the increase in oil prices was also driven by increasing hopes for US stimulus and easing of the lockdown, this is expected to revive the economy so that it will increase demand for fuel. In addition, the spike in oil prices for several weeks was also supported by increasingly tight supplies from Saudi Arabia and also caused by production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producer countries outside of OPEC + members. For EURUSD last week, it moved lower, due to restrictions on activities in several Eurozone member countries such as Germany and an increase in the yield on long-term US government bonds. However, starting this week, it is estimated that the Euro versus the US Dollar will strengthen. GBPUSD is predicted to continue its strengthening, the strengthening of the Pound Sterling is due to optimistic signals from investors regarding the Covid-19 vaccination steps by the British government. In addition, after the release of the UK's 4th quarter GDP growth data, which was released better than predicted. For other major currencies against the US Dollar, it is estimated that trading on Monday, February 15, 2021, which started this week, will strengthen. The belief that arises in the market will soon approve the US stimulus, a large Covid-19 aid package.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 15 - 19 February 2021

1.1 Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales (USD)

Wednesday, 20:30 WIB. The definition of Core Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars. Although car sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. Therefore, core data is considered a better measure of spending trends. Meanwhile, Retail Sales data is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall baseline for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which account for a large portion of a country's overall economic activity.

1.2 FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)

Wednesday, 02:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by The Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they usually vote on setting interest rates.

1.3 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUD)

Thursday, 07:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is the most important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.4 Retail Sales (GBP)

Friday, 14:00 WIB. Retail Sales is: data that records changes in the total value of all sales at the retail level. This is the overall baseline data for important consumer spending data. This data is also an important benchmark for consumer spending levels, which contribute a large part of a country's overall economic activity.

1.5 French Flash Services PMI & French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday, 15:15 WIB. This data measures the diffusion index level based on surveyed purchasing managers in the service sector. This data is also a leading indicator of a country's economic health. If businesses react quickly to market conditions, and the level of purchasing managers will provide a current and relevant view of a company's economic outlook. This data is the result of a survey of about 750 purchasing managers who asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. If the data is released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which was first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the biggest impact.

1.6 German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday, 15:30 WIB. German Flash Manufacturing PMI is data from a survey of about 800 purchasing managers in Germany that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact. German Flash Services PMI is a Survey of about 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have up-to-date and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, which sources first reported in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

1.7 Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Friday, 16:30 WIB. Flash Services PMI is a survey of about 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may have the most current and relevant insight into the company's economic outlook. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report that are released about a week apart - Flash and Final. The Flash release, first reported by sources in March 2008, is the earliest and tends to have the greatest impact.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 15 - 19 February 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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