Weekly Market Analysis: 08 - 12 March 2021

Weekly market analysis 08 - 12 March 2021 discusses things that can affect the market such as, the Greenback moved weaker due to the impact of the bill on the US Covid-19 stimulus package proposed by President-elect Joe Biden has been officially passed by Congress. Last weekend, with the results of the vote that had been carried out by the Senate, it finally resulted in a vote of 50 - 49, previously the results had been passed with a fairly long and fierce debate between members of the Democratic and Republican parties. For details regarding the stimulus package, there is a maximum direct cash assistance of up to US $ 1400 to all US citizens, then an extra unemployment benefit fund of US $ 300 per person until September. In addition to the details above, funds worth US $ 350 billion will be allocated to states in America. Meanwhile, education funds will be allocated US $ 130 billion, then US $ 49 billion will be allocated for assistance in vaccine development and research, then for stimulus funds worth US $ 14 billion for vaccine distribution. Crude oil prices jumped sharply in trading on Monday early this week, the cause of the increase in oil prices was geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) experienced significant increases. Brent oil rose and managed to break through the psychological level at US $ 70 per barrel, as did WTI oil, moving at US $ 67.60 per barrel. This increase in the price of American oil is the highest level since October 2018. The Houthi armed group as we know, so far the group has been supported by Iran has launched missiles via drones into the heart of Saudi Arabia's oil production. Among those destroyed were the Aramco facilities where the facility is one of the largest oil production refineries in the world. This attack is certain to cause geopolitical friction between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is certain that this condition will disrupt the world's oil supply, because the 2 countries are the largest oil producing countries in the world. Gold has shown its shine in trading at the beginning of this week. The increase in the price of Gold is due to the approval of the US stimulus aid package program of US $ !, 9 trillion. In fact, last weekend Gold had decreased after the release of US data, namely new job availability data (NFP) and weekly unemployment rate data. In its movement, the Pound Sterling weakened against the US Dollar, this weakening was due to the strengthening of the US Dollar after the release of positive data on employment outside the agricultural sector and the number of monthly unemployed. In addition, the weakening of the Pound Sterling was due to political tensions in the Eurozone with the UK, the tensions concerned Northern Ireland. For today's market movement in the Asian session, GBPUSD is estimated to still weaken, even though the US Covid-19 aid package stimulus has been officially launched.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 08 - 12 March 2021

1.1 BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Monday, 5:00 p.m. WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they often provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.2 RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks (AUD)

Wednesday, 5 a.m. WIB. As head of Australia’s central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country’s currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they often provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.3 CPI and Core CPI (USD)

Wednesday, 20:30 WIB. CPI This data measures changes in the prices of goods and services at the consumer level. The average prices of various goods and services are sampled and then compared with the sampling in the previous period. Consumer prices are the majority of the overall data used to calculate a country's inflation rate. Inflation is very important for assessing whether a country's currency is weakening or strengthening, because if prices rise, the central bank will raise interest rates in order to control inflation. If this data is released, it will have a major impact on market movements. Core CPI is the core data from consumer price data which is the majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency assessment because rising prices cause central banks to raise interest rates to honor their mandate to control inflation. Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of the CPI, but tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to Core data - and so do investors.

1.4 BOC Rate Statement (CAD)

Wednesday, 22:00 WIB. BOC Rate Statement, this data is the main tool used by the central bank's Board of Commissioners to provide investors with information about monetary policy. This data also contains the results of their decisions on interest rates and comments on economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about the results of decisions that are useful for making decisions for future policy.

1.5 BOC Press Conference (CAD)

Wednesday, Tentative. This is a two-part press conference - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create significant market volatility. This is one of the primary methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It details the factors that influenced the recent interest rate decision, such as the overall outlook for the economy and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.6 Monetary Policy Statement (EUR)

Thursday, 19:45 WIB. This is the data used as one of the main tools the European Central Bank uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their decisions on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues about future vote outcomes.

1.7 ECB Press Conference (EUR)

Thursday, 8:30 p.m. This data is about a press conference that has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create great market volatility. This is one of the main methods the Board uses to provide investors with information about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues about what monetary policy will be in the future.

1.8 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)

Friday, 20:30 WIB. Employment Change is data on job creation that is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data contains the Change in the number of people employed during the previous month. This is important economic data that is released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. Unemployment Rate is data on the unemployment rate in a month. Although generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 08 - 12 March 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil