Weekly Market Analysis: 08 - 12 February 2021

Weekly market analysis 08 - 12 February 2021 will discuss things that can affect the market during the week. The condition of the Greenback on Friday last weekend experienced limited weakening against several other major currencies. The US dollar tried to recover from its weakening against other major currencies, which occurred after the release of the NFP data at the end of last week. Several analysts argue that there is still a chance for the US dollar to show further strengthening. The strengthening of the US dollar depends on the progress of the stimulus package plan and the success of the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine. Meanwhile, on the other hand, with the control of the Senate on the side of the US Democratic Party, it is hoped that it will be able to pass President Biden's Covid-19 aid package stimulus plan worth US $ 1.9 trillion. However, the final approval of the stimulus plan remains in Congress. Market players hope that the stimulus proposal will soon become law despite the rejection from the Republican Party. As we know that Republican senators will agree if the stimulus amount is below US $ 1.9 trillion, and they proposed a stimulus amount of only around US $ 700 billion. The Euro currency at the end of last week moved to strengthen against the US Dollar. The strengthening of the Euro was due to the release of disappointing US NFP data. The release of US employment data was lower than predicted even though it was above last month. In addition, the US hourly wage data also weakened the US Dollar. However, the strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar is only temporary, considering the conditions of the European zone member countries which are still struggling to stop the spread of the new type of Corona virus. The Pound Sterling versus the US Dollar, is predicted to weaken/decrease in trading on Monday (February 8, 2021) at the beginning of this week. The weakening of the Pound Sterling was due to the strength of the Greenback, although it had weakened to a limited extent on Friday last week. On Friday last week, the Pound Sterling moved to strengthen/increase after the release of negative US NFP data. In addition, the strengthening of the Poundsterling was also supported by optimistic reports regarding the Covid-19 virus vaccination program in the UK. The movement of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar on Monday early this week moved to try to continue its strengthening. It should be noted that the optimism and cautious attitude of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during last week was still looking for ways to prevent the Aussie currency from weakening against the US Dollar. Meanwhile, Wall Street's movement remained strong at the end of last week where the US Treasury yield for the 10-year tenor moved up to a new high since March 2020. Oil prices moved up in trading last week, the impact of market players' optimism regarding global economic growth and the production restrictions that have been carried out by oil producing member countries that are members of OPEC +. Gold prices moved up at the end of trading last Friday, the impact of the weakening US Dollar after the release of Non-Farm Payroll data which was below predictions. In trading on Monday early this week, it is estimated that it will still try to rise. This increase can be seen from the physical purchasing actions carried out by several market players.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 08 - 12 February

1.1 BOE Gov. Bailey Speak (GBP)

Wednesday, 24:00 WIB. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Traders watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.2 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

Thursday, 02:00 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.3 EU Economic Forecast (EUR)

Thursday, 17:00 WIB. The report contains economic forecasts for EU member states for the next 2 years, and covers around 180 variables. The source changed the release frequency from twice a year to three times a year in Feb 2012 and from three times a year to quarterly in July 2018. The forecasts serve as the European Commission's basis for evaluating the economic performance and trends of EU member states in relation to potential austerity measures and other forced spending cuts.

1.4 Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET. This is a measure of the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week. It is the nation’s earliest economic data. Market impact fluctuates from week to week — traders tend to focus more on the release when they need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at an extreme point. Although generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Unemployment is also a key consideration for those who direct the nation’s monetary policy.

1.5 Prelim GDP (GBP)

Friday, 14:00 WIB. UK GDP Prelim, This is the broadest gauge of a country's economic activity and a key measure of its health. It also records the inflation-adjusted change in the value of all final goods and services produced by a country's economy. There are two versions of quarterly GDP released approximately 45 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the greatest impact. This UK GDP data can have a wide impact on currency markets due to the UK's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 08 - 12 February 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BULLISH
Movement Range	59,98 (High)
Movement Range	52,84 (Low)

That's the weekly market analysis for February 8-12, 2021. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading. Visit GIC Indonesia to get information about the world of trading. You can also join us in the GIC Trade Telegram Community and GIC Trade Telegram Channel. Don't forget to check the GIC Indonesia Youtube account which is full of lots of information, and follow our Instagram account to get information about various interesting webinars that you can follow.