Weekly Market Analysis: 05 - 09 April 2021

Weekly market analysis 05 - 09 April 2021 will discuss things that can affect the market such as, the US Dollar currency has weakened even though the release of positive US economic data. In the NFP data release last Friday, the number of jobs prepared by the US government was released at 916k, above the prediction and the previous period which was only 652K and 468k. In addition, the monthly unemployment rate data also decreased to 6.0% according to predictions but below last month's data which was released at 6.2%. However, after the release of the NFP data, the US Dollar moved slowly due to the lack of market response due to the approaching Easter holiday. Still in the atmosphere of Good Friday and holidays in several countries in the European Zone in order to commemorate Easter Monday, it caused the market movement to tend to be slow. In recent times, the movement of the US Dollar has managed to experience the biggest strengthening in 3 years, in the period from January to March. However, the Dollar index has now managed to reach its highest level since November 2020. The US economic data that will be released tonight includes the US Non-Manufacturing PMI data. For US service sector activity data, it is estimated that there will be a spike from 55.3 to 58.5 in February. If this data is released above the prediction, it is certain that the strengthening of the US Dollar will continue. For EURUSD, the movement in the market on Friday trading last weekend actually weakened, due to the strengthening of the US Dollar. The strengthening of the US Dollar occurred after the release of employment data and the monthly unemployment rate report. In addition, regarding global conditions, especially concerns about the worsening Covid-19 pandemic in the European zone. A flashback of the movement of Gold, which had moved up and created the highest level in history in mid-2020. The highest level was at US $ 2075 / troy ounce in August. This spike in Gold prices was supported by signals of market concerns about rising inflation, the impact of the launch of a very large fiscal stimulus. The amount, which was initially US $ 3 trillion, was used to overcome the US economic conditions due to the Covid-19 pandemic. All countries in the world have been racing to develop a Corona vaccine since November last year, and its impact will move optimistically towards economic recovery, so that the movement of Gold in trading at the end of 2020 was below the level of US $ 1,700 / troy ounce. Since the beginning of 2021, it has decreased, even though the US government under the command of Joe Biden has succeeded in disbursing a fiscal stimulus package of Covid-19 relief funds of US $ 1.9 trillion. In addition, White House officials have also issued stimulus funds last Wednesday, the plan is that the funds will be used for infrastructure development separate from the stimulus that was previously approved by the committee, the funds amount to around US $ 2 trillion. In trading last Thursday, the movement of Gold was still moving above the 1730 level, this increase in Gold was driven by the decline in long-term US government bond yields and the weakening of the US Dollar. On Friday, April 2, 2021, the Gold market was closed to commemorate Good Friday. On Monday, April 5, 2021, early this week, it is estimated that the movement of Gold will decline, due to the good impact of the release of US NFP data. The Dollar Index, which is a measure of the Greenback against several other major currencies, fell from its highest level for the past few days, namely at level 93. The yield on US government bonds with a 10-year tenor also fell to 1.68% below the weekly high of 1.77%. Oil prices tend to decline, due to the strengthening of the US Dollar. Currently, the focus of market players is on the planned negotiations between the US and Iran which are planned to be held in Vienna, Austria. These negotiations are scheduled to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, where at that time between Tehran (Iran) and Washington (US) and its allies, at that time it was canceled by the administration of President Donald Trump. Ahead of the talks, Iran's Foreign Ministry has sought to get the United States to lift all sanctions and has outright rejected any "step-by-step" easing by the United States.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 05 - 09 April 2021

1.1 RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday, 11:30 WIB. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting later, plans to maintain interest rates at 0.10%. If the RBA is as predicted above, the Aussie will move to strengthen against the US Dollar if the currency of the superpower country continues to weaken. Cash Rate, after the interest rate decision that will be released in the market, tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Interest Rate Statement (Cash Rate), which focuses on future policies. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in impacting the Australian currency. Market players view and prepare for the impacts caused and predict how interest rates will change or not in the future.

1.2 FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)

Thursday, 01:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by The Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they usually vote on setting interest rates.

1.3 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

Thursday, 23:00 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.4 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)

Friday, 19:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is an important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 05 - 09 April 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil