Weekly Market Analysis: 04 - 08 January 2021

Weekly market analysis 04 - 08 January 2021 will discuss things that can affect market movements such as, the Greenback in 2020 closed with a weakening against other major currencies, this weakening was the biggest weakening in the last 3 years. The US Dollar condition had jumped stronger against other currencies, because of its function as a safe haven after the Covid-19 pandemic hit. However, currently the weakening of the US Dollar has weakened sharply when the US central bank The Fed poured out a Covid-19 aid stimulus package. The performance of the US Dollar had touched the highest strengthening level at 102.xx in March 2020, and was the highest strengthening level in 3 years. However, it ended in 2020 with a sharp weakening to the level of 89.xx. Here is a summary of the performance of the US Dollar in 2020 against other major currencies: *) EUR/USD at the end of 2020 the Euro strengthened against the Greenback, precisely on December 30, 2020, the Euro even touched its highest level at 1.23xxx, this level exceeds the level achieved in April 2018. *) AUD/USD & NZD/USD have strengthened against the US Dollar and reached their highest strengthening level since June 2018, the Aussie strengthening level was at 0.77xx and the Kiwi 0.72xxx. Overall, these two currencies have strengthened against the US Dollar by more than 5% in 2020. *) USD/JPY actually experienced limited weakening against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen movement once strengthened at the level of 102.xxx, this level occurred precisely on December 17, 2020. *) GBP/USD is a pair that moves quite wildly compared to other pairs in the movement at the end of 2020. The pound sterling strengthened compared to the US dollar, and reached its highest level at 1.36xxx. This is the impact of the agreement between the UK and the European Union regarding Brexit. At the beginning of trading at the beginning of 2021, market movements were still thin, because market players had just returned from the Christmas and New Year holidays. However, today there is still a movement of investor profit taking action on several pairs in the market. On the other hand, Gold is moving up and exists above the 1900 level, this is the impact of positive signals that there will be further stimulus for Covid-19 in the United States, the Brexit agreement, and Covid-19 vaccinations can encourage the increase in gold prices to continue.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 04 - 08 January 2021

1.1 OPEC-JMMC Meetings (All pair)

Monday, 16:30 WIB. The meaning of the JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, the most important of which in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak to reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and meeting objectives is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for a meeting like this was originally in January 2017.

1.2 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday, 8:15 p.m. WIB. This data provides an early look at job growth, usually two days before the government's payrolls report (NFP). Job availability is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of U.S. GDP. The ADP sample analyzes payroll data for more than 23 million workers to come up with an estimate of job growth.

1.3 BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP)

Wednesday, 21:00 WIB. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else. Market players are watching and scrutinizing the release of this data, which can be a reference for the central bank to take monetary policy in the future.

1.4 FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)

Thursday, 02:00 WIB. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is a meeting of the heads of the central banks of the United States headed by The Fed. They meet to agree on the policies to be taken. In 1 year they will hold 8 meetings and this is a detailed record of the latest FOMC meeting, after they meet they usually vote on setting interest rates.

1.5 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)

Friday, 20:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is an important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.

1.6 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)

Friday, 20:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month Earnings will be good followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 6.9% and is predicted to drop to 6.8% in December. If it is released as predicted or even below, the US Dollar will strengthen.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 04 - 08 January 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

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