Weekly market analysis 03-07 May 2021 will discuss things that can affect market movements such as the Greenback starting to recover from its weakness against other major currencies. The Greenback's rebound can be seen after the increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. In addition, the strengthening of the US Dollar also received support from President Joe Biden's speech which will use additional stimulus worth US $ 2 trillion for family welfare and children's education. The details and plans for this stimulus were stated by Biden in early April. Biden's plan also received a positive response from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, where Yellen said that Joe Biden's plan to use additional stimulus funds would not make the US inflation rate even more uncontrolled as fears have developed in the market, because the use of the additional stimulus will be carried out gradually and take up to 1 decade to come. The focus of market players this week is on the NFP Report data which is estimated by the United States government to add around 950,000 jobs in April, while the monthly unemployment rate is predicted to decrease by 5.7% from the previous month which was released at 6.0%. If the data release is in accordance with the prediction, then it is certain that the US bond yield will also be pushed up, causing the US Dollar currency to strengthen. EURUSD moved weaker for the Euro due to the strengthening of the US Dollar, plus concerns about the release of economic data in the European zone also put pressure on the single currency of the European zone. The economic data in question is regarding the GDP (Revenue and Expenditure) data of Germany. This pessimistic attitude is what also dragged the Euro down from its highest level against the US Dollar in trading last Friday. For today, the Euro movement is predicted to continue to weaken due to the strengthening of the US Dollar which is still ongoing. The weakening of the Pound against the US Dollar in trading on the market last Friday has created a reversal movement in the chart. The weakening of the Poundsterling is also due to market players' concerns about the geopolitical conditions in Scotland ahead of the planned election in that country. The election is planned to be held next week, in addition, the weakening of the Poundsterling against the US Dollar is also due to the increase in long-term bond yields, causing the US Dollar to strengthen against several other major currencies. Today's market movement is predicted that GBPUSD will continue to weaken the Poundsterling. USDJPY in the market movement last Friday, weakened against the US Dollar. The weakening of the Yen against the US Dollar occurred despite the release of Japanese economic data, namely the Industrial Production data and the Japanese Manufacturing Index which were released positively. The continued strengthening of the US Dollar has caused the Yen's movement to continue to weaken. The movement of Oil prices fell in trading last Friday, the decline in Oil Prices occurred due to the perception of decreasing world demand for Crude Oil. This perception arose following the implementation of Lockdown in India and Brazil. The decline in oil prices is expected to continue in today's market trading, amid reports of increased US Rig activity as reported by Baker Hughes. The release of positive US economic data coupled with the increase in US government bond yields has caused the price of Gold to decline in market trading last Friday. In the Asian session in market trading on Monday, May 3, 2021 at the beginning of this week, it is estimated that the movement of the Gold market will continue to decline. This can be seen from the strengthening of the US Dollar. Last April, the movement of Gold almost touched the psychological level at 1800/troy ounce, but failed even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still maintained its monetary policy. Positive US employment data due to the encouragement of infrastructure development and various other fields will further depress the price of Gold. The profit taking action carried out by market players also dragged the price of Gold to its lowest level. It is estimated that the decline in the price of Gold can continue to decline ahead of the release of NFP data next Friday. Expectations that positive NFP data and monthly unemployment data reports will be released will further sink gold prices.
1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 03-07 May 2021
1.1 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)
Tuesday, 01:20 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.
1.2 RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday, 11:30 WIB. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting later, plans to maintain interest rates at 0.10%. If the RBA is as predicted above, the Aussie will move to strengthen against the US Dollar if the currency of the superpower country continues to weaken. Cash Rate, after the interest rate decision that will be released in the market, tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Interest Rate Statement (Cash Rate), which focuses on future policies. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in impacting the Australian currency. Market players view and prepare for the impacts caused and predict how interest rates will change or not in the future.
1.3 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (NZD)
Wednesday, 05:45 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is an important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.
1.4 RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks (NZD)
Wednesday, 06:00 WIB & 08:10 WIB. Adrian Orr as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.
1.5 BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks (CAD)
Thursday, 05:30 WIB. Bank of Canada Chairman "Tiff Macklem" will present his policy views. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has a greater influence on the value of the Canadian currency. Market players are watching the influence of the policies that will be taken by the head of the central bank, this is because it often becomes a signal about future monetary policy and will certainly affect price movements in the market. Volatile market movements sometimes occur when the speech of the head of the Canadian central bank, especially regarding instructions on the benchmark interest rate.
1.6 Asset Purchase Facility, BOE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes & Monetary Policy Summary (GBP)
Thursday, 18:00 WIB. Asset Purchase Facility is data that will look at the total value of money that will be created and used by the BOE to buy assets in the open market. Where MPC members vote on the total amount of money to be created for the program. Individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes. This data is used to increase demand for bonds which usually leads to lower long-term interest rates. The BOE Monetary Policy Report is data that will provide valuable insight into the bank's views on economic conditions and inflation - key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions. The MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes are the results of the BOE MPC meeting containing asset purchase votes for each MPC member during the last meeting. The vote breakdown provides insight into which members changed their stance on asset purchases and how close the committee is to enacting changes in future purchases. The Monetary Policy Summary data is one of the main tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the results of their votes on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary on the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues about future voting outcomes.
1.7 Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD)
Friday, 19:30 WIB. Employment Change is important because job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This data is an important economic data released shortly after the end of the month. The combination of importance and clarity produces a large and powerful market impact. The Unemployment Rate is the percentage (%) of the total working age population who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although generally viewed as a less solid indicator, the number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions.
1.8 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)
Friday, 19:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month Earnings will be good followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 6.0% and is predicted to drop to 5.7% in April. If it is released according to or even below the prediction, the US Dollar will strengthen.
2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 03-07 May 2021
2.1 EUR/USD
| Preferensi |
BEARISH |
| Movement Range |
1,21521 (High) |
| Movement Range |
1,18655 (Low) |
2.2 USDCHF
| Preferensi |
BULLISH |
| Movement Range |
0,92430 (High) |
| Movement Range |
0,90053 (Low) |
2.3 GBPUSD
| Preferensi |
BEARISH |
| Movement Range |
1,40500 (High) |
| Movement Range |
1,36078 (Low) |
2.4 USDJPY
| Preferensi |
BULLISH |
| Movement Range |
110,960 (High) |
| Movement Range |
108,217 (Low) |
2.5 Gold
| Preferensi |
BEARISH |
| Movement Range |
1820,00 (High) |
| Movement Range |
1700,00 (Low) |
2.6 AUDUSD
| Preferensi |
BEARISH |
| Movement Range |
0,78873 (High) |
| Movement Range |
0,75180 (Low) |
2.7 Oil
| Preferensi |
BEARISH |
| Movement Range |
68,37 (High) |
| Movement Range |
57,28 (Low) |
That's the weekly market analysis for May 03-07, 2021. Always prioritize Money Management and Risk Management in your trading.
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