Weekly Market Analysis: 01 - 05 March 2021

Weekly market analysis 01 - 05 March 2021 will discuss things that can affect the market during the week such as, the Greenback is increasingly showing its strength against other major currencies, the impact of the increase in the yield of US government bonds with a tenor of 10 years. For the 10-year Treasury has jumped to a level above 1.6%, where the level was seen in February 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic became increasingly fierce. This incident has made the movement of the stock exchange on Wall Street mostly red, especially for the technology stock index included in the Nasdaq, which initially this stock index had made big profits during the pandemic that hit the world. Investors are looking more at small stocks that were previously not given much attention, namely household component stocks and other housing / property indexes. Oil prices soared in today's trading in the Asian session, this price increase was supported by positive news from the Covid-19 vaccination process. The distribution and implementation of vaccinations are reported to be evenly distributed and widespread in the majority of countries in the world, thus raising market optimism that the economy will revive and demand for energy commodities such as oil. Market players are focused on the agenda of the OPEC+ member meeting. Analysts predict that the meeting will produce useful decisions to increase oil production. Gold's movement has declined sharply for several days, and in trading on Monday early this week, the Asian session still has the potential to decline. This decline in gold prices is the worst monthly decline since 2016. Gold's luster has begun to fade since prices hit their highest level in history in August 2020. The beginning of the decline in gold began to appear in November last year, after the discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine with an immunity level reaching 94%. This further increases the estimate that the world's economic recovery from the pandemic will soon occur. The decline in gold last week occurred due to changes in investment instruments made by market players. Investors are slowly starting to move away from safe haven assets, especially gold, and shifting their investments to certain riskier assets. This attitude is due to market confidence that the Covid-19 pandemic that has attacked the entire world is gradually starting to be overcome, although there is still a threat from the new variant of the virus. GBPUSD in last week's trading mostly moved up, but at the end of the market on Friday last week there was a correction due to being hampered by the strengthening of the US Dollar. As reviewed above, the strengthening of the US Dollar was due to the increase in the yield on US government bonds for long-term tenors. It is estimated that the movement of the Pound Sterling will still strengthen, amid the report of the British Finance Minister who said that the government would be ready to offer additional stimulus of 5 billion Pounds to British entrepreneurs. AUDUSD in today's trading is still moving limitedly, even though Australian house price data was released rising to the highest level that occurred in the 3rd quarter of 2003. According to the latest news source CoreLogic on Monday (March 1, 2021), house price growth rose from 0.9% to 2.0% in February 2021. When compared to the same period in the previous year, house prices increased by 4.0%. This reflects the positive and enthusiasm of consumers to have a new home amidst Australia's low loan interest rates.

1. Important Data/High Impact on Weekly Market Analysis 01 - 05 March 2021

1.1 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Monday, 22:00 WIB. ISM Manufacturing PMI is the same index released by Market for Manufacturing PMI, but the data is sourced and created by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which is specifically created for the US. This indicator will usually have a greater impact than the one released by Market. Just info This index is created based on a survey of around 400 purchasing managers in the US, regarding current business conditions and situations, including production output, product availability, shipping activity, number of orders, and number of workers or employees. If the release is above 50.0 then it reflects expansion in the manufacturing sector, but if it is below 50.0 it indicates contraction.

1.2 RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday, 10:30 WIB. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting later, plans to maintain interest rates at 0.10%. If the RBA is as predicted above, the Aussie will move to strengthen against the US Dollar if the currency of the superpower country continues to weaken. Cash Rate, after the interest rate decision that will be released in the market, tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Interest Rate Statement (Cash Rate), which focuses on future policies. Short-term interest rates are the most important factor in impacting the Australian currency. Market players view and prepare for the impacts caused and predict how interest rates will change or not in the future.

1.3 GDP (AUD)

Wednesday, 07:30 WIB. It is data that measures changes in value adjusted for the inflation rate of all goods and services produced by a country. This data is also the largest benchmark for economic activity to see whether a country's economy is healthy or not. This data is released every 3 months, approximately 65 days after the quarter ends.

1.4 Annual Budget Release (GBP)

Wednesday, Tentative. This data is a document that outlines the government's budget for the year, including expected spending and revenue levels, borrowing levels, financial goals, and planned investments. The level of domestic government spending and borrowing can have a significant impact on the economy - increased spending generates work for contractors and creates jobs, while borrowing levels affect a country's credit rating and provide insight into the country's underlying fiscal position.

1.5 RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks (NZD)

Thursday, 03:15 WIB. As the chairman of the Central Bank of New Zealand Adrian Orr for the period March 2018 - March 2023. Volatility will often be experienced during his speech as market participants try to digest the interest rate clues. As the chairman of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has greater influence over the state of the country's currency. Market participants watch his public engagements because they are often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

1.6 OPEC - JMMC Meetings (ALL pair)

Thursday, All Day. The definition of JMMC Meetings data" means that the OPEC-JMMC Meeting is attended by representatives from 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich countries. They discuss various issues about the energy market, the most important of which in this meeting will agree on how much oil they will produce. The meeting is closed to the press but officials usually speak with reporters throughout the day, and an official statement covering policy changes and the meeting's objectives is released after the meeting is over. The agenda for this meeting was originally in January 2017.

1.7 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

Friday, 00:05 WIB. Powell as Chairman of the US Central Bank, who served from February 2018 - February 2022. His duties include controlling short-term interest rates. In addition, he also has a greater influence on the strengthening or weakening of the US currency than anyone else. Investors are eagerly awaiting the central bank's statement which is useful for providing subtle clues about future monetary policy.

1.8 Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (USD)

Friday, 20:30 WIB. Average Hourly Earnings is an indicator of the inflation rate derived from the amount of hourly wages paid by employers outside the agricultural sector. If the value of the Average Hourly Earnings of the United States (US) is good or increases, the US Dollar will strengthen, and vice versa. Non-Farm Employment Change is data that measures the level of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. What is the relationship between Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change? NFP data and Average Earnings data are related and influence each other, but NFP data has a greater impact on market movements. Average earnings are the percentage change in hourly wages. If the NFP is good but the Average Hourly Earnings fall, the US Dollar may still strengthen, because there is a prediction that in the following month Earnings will be good followed by an increase in the number of workers. Conversely, if the NFP is bad, the USD will tend to weaken even though Earnings are good. Unemployment Rate is data that measures the monthly unemployment rate in the US. Last month the unemployment rate was released at 6.3% and is predicted to increase to 6.4% in March. If it is released according to the prediction or even above, the US Dollar will weaken.

2. Technical Review According to Weekly Market Analysis 01 - 05 March 2021

2.1 EUR/USD

2.2 USDCHF

2.3 GBPUSD

2.4 USDJPY

2.5 Gold

2.6 AUDUSD

2.7 Oil

Preferensi	BULLISH
Movement Range	65,91 (High)
Movement Range	58,58 (Low)

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