Jakarta, GIC Trade – Escalating tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war support the US Dollar amid risk-off sentiment. Gold traders will be keeping an eye on the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting for more monetary policy clues. 
 
Gold prices are trading close to support at $1,830-$1,835. The US Dollar's market dominance increased again on the back of rising geopolitical tensions ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 
While Markit Economics will publish an early February release for the US S&P Global PMIs across all sectors, which is expected to come within contraction territory (below 50) overall, but took little strength compared to the January reading. 
 
On the other hand, a lower-than-expected headline PMI report combined with a decline in private sector payrolls could weigh on the USD and help XAU/USD rise higher.
 
Meanwhile, the United States (US) central bank or Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of its last policy meeting. It will be key to see if some policymakers see the need for the Fed to reconsider a 50 bps rate hike at its next meeting and weigh heavily on gold prices.
 
Expectations of further interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve dimmed the outlook for gold which did not deliver yields and boosted the dollar. Higher interest rates prevent investments in gold that do not yield, although they are considered a hedge against soaring prices.
 
Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that supports the strengthening of the dollar and also the expectation of interest rates of 50 bps can weigh on gold prices going forward. Then how technically, see the following analysis:
 
Technical Analysis

 
Gold prices in the 1-hour period are still in a downward trend as seen from the RSI indicator which is moving downward towards the 30 RSI level. It needs a break of the 1830.30 area to fall further towards the 1825.20 support. Meanwhile, for a bullish bias, gold needs to cross the 1847.38 resistance testing the strongest daily resistance at 1855.90.
 
This analysis is a fundamental and technical view used by the author, not a suggestion or invitation. To get more information click on the image below.